Putin's 2 Likely Plans /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Steve Jermy

Daniel Davis Deep Dive Merch: Etsy store

As Ukraine’s military weakens, analysts suggest Putin may now pursue his broader territorial objectives, framing the war as essential for Russia’s security. Plan A remains pushing forward militarily to secure key regions, with Plan B being a diplomatic pause once Russia consolidates its hold over four territories.

Western estimates, such as a UK Ministry of Defence claim that Russia would need four years and nearly 2 million casualties to achieve victory, are dismissed as flawed—based on Ukrainian sources, questionable casualty math, and assumptions that current slow progress will continue. Critics argue Ukrainian losses are far higher than reported, and the Russian advantage in firepower makes Western figures implausible.

European leaders are seen as locked into a political narrative that blinds them to battlefield realities, relying on poor intelligence and flawed analysis. This risks them acting against their national interests until reality forces a shift.

Despite battlefield strength, Russia publicly emphasizes willingness for peace talks. After the Alaska meeting, Putin described discussions as frank and constructive, stressing that resolving the root causes of the crisis is key and expressing openness to a settlement achieved by peaceful means.