John Mearsheimer: Ukraine Barely Hanging On

Daniel Davis Deep Dive Merch: Etsy store

The discussion highlights the weakening position of Ukraine as U.S. support declines and Trump pressures Europe to take on more of the burden. Zelensky is running a strong propaganda campaign to maintain Western backing, but Europe’s fragile economies (France, Germany, UK) make sustained support doubtful. Militarily, the West lacks the manpower and industrial capacity to match Russia’s weapon production, leaving Ukraine unable to compete on the battlefield despite information war success.

European leaders like NATO’s Mark Rutte push for expanded defense spending and frame Ukraine’s security as tied to Europe’s, but this is seen as delusional: welfare-state politics make cutting social spending for military buildup unrealistic, and even if investments are made, they won’t bear fruit before the war ends.

Meanwhile, escalation risks rise as Europe doubles down. If Ukraine’s military collapses, the West may feel compelled to escalate further rather than accept defeat, making the situation dangerous. On sanctions, the EU continues introducing new packages, despite previous 18 rounds failing to shift Russian behavior—showing a lack of strategic reassessment since the failed Istanbul negotiations in 2022.

Core takeaway:

Ukraine is losing ground militarily, Western support is eroding economically and politically, yet leaders double down on military aid and sanctions, increasing the risk of dangerous escalation rather than pursuing settlement.