Prof John Mearsheimer: CLASSIC U.S. REGIME CHANGE in IRAN

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John Mearsheimer argues that the unrest in Iran is not a spontaneous, grassroots uprising but part of a familiar U.S.–Israeli regime-change strategy. Western media, they say, falsely portray the protests as an internal revolt against a mismanaged regime, when in reality economic hardship driving public anger was largely caused by U.S. sanctions.

this strategy has failed so far: protests have sharply declined, the Iranian government has largely suppressed them, and even Israeli commentators reportedly acknowledge the crackdown succeeded. Because the regime is not “on its last legs,” the planned military phase has not been triggered as intended.

The concern now, the speaker says, is that U.S. leaders—particularly President Trump—may still consider using military force to “rescue” a failed regime-change effort. They argue public rhetoric about democracy and protesters masks an explicit goal of regime change, citing statements by figures like Mike Pompeo and Lindsey Graham.

Finally, the speaker warns of serious military risks. U.S. and Israeli forces currently have less combat power in the region than during the June 2025 conflict, when Iranian ballistic missiles increasingly penetrated defenses. Iran, they note, has warned it would retaliate directly against Israel and U.S. bases, raising the danger that a new conflict could be far more destructive and harder to contain.