Deceptive Nature of Peace Talks, Keep Watching the Battlefield /Glenn Diesen & Lt Col Daniel Davis

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Peace talks are seen as deceptive, not genuine. Russia (and others) view current peace initiatives involving the US, NATO, China, and Iran as largely performative. Talks are tolerated only in case desperation forces concessions, but there is no real expectation of peace.

Russia is preparing for military victory, not compromise. Moscow appears focused on winning on the battlefield and is preparing for the possibility that NATO may intervene later if Ukraine collapses. This reduces any incentive for Russia to make painful concessions.

Ukraine’s situation has deteriorated significantly. Over the past year, Ukraine has suffered heavy troop losses, lost more territory, and seen escalating air attacks. Infrastructure damage—especially to power and heating—has caused mass civilian displacement, economic collapse in key cities, and reduced military effectiveness.

Russian military signaling has intensified. The operational use of advanced missiles (capable of conventional or nuclear payloads) is meant to demonstrate that the West lacks effective defenses, reinforcing Russia’s strategic leverage.

Time works against Ukraine. The Ukrainian military is increasingly unable to hold front lines, the economy is strained, and infrastructure failures are accelerating collapse. What looks like a slow defeat could suddenly become rapid.

Earlier compromise options are no longer realistic. While Russia was willing to negotiate in 2022, years of fighting have changed realities on the ground. Returning to earlier frameworks is no longer seen as feasible.

If collapse accelerates, Russia is unlikely to stop at current lines. The analysis suggests Russia would push to take major southern cities (e.g., Mykolaiv and Odessa), landlocking Ukraine and preventing it from serving as a NATO frontline in the Black Sea.

Western unity matters—but cracks help Russia. Divisions between the US and Europe (such as disputes over Greenland) benefit Russia. Moscow prefers to stay out of such disputes and let Western alliances weaken on their own.

Russia views de-escalation as weakness. Bombing has intensified even during diplomatic visits, signaling that Russia believes strength—not compromise—is what commands respect, particularly from US leadership.

Overall outlook: pessimistic. The speaker sees little evidence of a meaningful peace settlement emerging. Negotiations are viewed as theatrical, with escalation—not de-escalation—expected going forward.