SURVIVE: That's ALL IRAN NEEDS TO DO /Lt Col Daniel Davis

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Lt Colonel Daniel Davis says the deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford to the Mediterranean is significant, but its impact depends on the objective.

If the U.S. goal is simply to pressure or coerce Iran into a favorable deal, increasing military presence can help escalate pressure. However, if the goal is regime change, Davis argues that even with the Ford, the USS Abraham Lincoln, and other air and ground assets, it would likely not be enough. He contends that regimes are unlikely to be toppled through airpower and missile strikes alone without a ground invasion—similar to U.S. operations in Iraq in 1991 and 2003.

Davis emphasizes that Iran is prepared for such an attack. Its leadership has continuity plans in place, forces are dispersed, and air defenses are spread out. Iran’s objective would simply be survival, whereas the U.S. would need a decisive victory—setting a much higher bar for success. He warns that the U.S. could begin a conflict it cannot quickly resolve.

Regarding President Donald Trump, Davis believes Trump likely wants a quick, decisive victory rather than a prolonged war. However, he suggests Trump may be receiving overly optimistic assessments from advisers who believe the mission could be completed in weeks. Davis cautions that attacking an opponent that has had ample time to prepare—both physically and psychologically—is militarily risky and unlikely to go smoothly.