Pandemic origin

Global situation

Origins of the pandemic

Over the past 24 hours, members of the international scientific team on COVID-19 virus origins began traveling from their home countries to China.

Today we learned that Chinese officials have not yet finalised the necessary permissions for the team’s arrival in China.

We are eager to get the mission underway as soon as possible.

China CDC researcher Wu Zunyou

Qingdao outbreak (October)

Virus could survive long trips in a deep freeze and still infect people

Imports from abroad caused the spread and transmission of this outbreak

Background

Top-secret Wuhan Institute of Virology, 11 miles from the market

Specialises in the study of bat-borne viruses

US officials who visited the lab two years ago warned about safety weaknesses and the risks of a new Sars-like epidemic emerging from the site

Working with prominent Western experts and supported financially by the National Institutes of Health

Deputy National Security Adviser Matthew Pottinger

Officials within China have rejected the theory that the virus originated from a wet market in Wuhan.

Critics fear the probe will be a whitewash given China's influence on the WHO

There is a growing body of evidence to say that a laboratory leak or accident is very much a credible possibility

Even establishment figures in Beijing have openly dismissed the wet market story

Smoking associated with increased risk of COVID-19 symptoms

Background

Association between current tobacco smoking

Risk of developing symptomatic COVID-19

Severity of illness

Methods

Demographics

Anthropometrics

Smoking status

Medical conditions

Anyone feeling unwell

Asked about 14 potential COVID-19 symptoms

and about hospital attendance

Association between symptoms was also compared between smokers and non-smokers.

Results

Between March 24th and 23rd April 2020

N = 2,401,982 participants

Mean age 43.6

Female, 63.3%

Overall smoking prevalence 11.0%

(14.1%, 2019)

Feeling unwell, 834,437 (35%), entered one or more symptoms

Current smokers were more likely to report symptoms suggesting a diagnosis of COVID-19

OR = 1.14

More than 5 symptoms, OR = 1.29

More than 10 symptoms, OR = 1.50

Interpretation

Smokers at an increased risk of developing symptomatic COVID-19

Smokers had more severe symptoms

Mario Falchi

Some reports have suggested a protective effect of smoking on COVID-19 risk.

However, studies in this area can easily be affected by biases in sampling, participation and

response.

Our results clearly show that smokers are at increased risk of suffering from a wider range of COVID-19 symptoms than non-smokers

Claire Steves, lead researcher and consultant physician

As rates of COVID-19 continue to rise and the NHS edges towards capacity,

it’s important to do all we can to reduce its effects and find ways to reduce hospital admissions.

Our analysis shows that smoking increases a person’s likelihood to attend hospitals,

so stopping smoking is one of the things we can do to reduce the health consequences of the disease

UK

Data, 7th Jan 2021

Cases, 58,784 + 60,916 + 62,322 = 2,836,801

Hospitalised, + 2,434 + 3,075 + 3,179 = 30,451 (ventilated, 2,645)

Previous peak, 12 April = 21,683

Deaths, + 830 + 1,041 = 77,346

Deaths, + 3,270 = 82,624

United States

CDC trends

https:/covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases

Cases, + 214,378 + 243,346 = 21,070,137

Up 7.8% in 7 days

Testing, + 1,605,799

Up 4.6% in past 7 days

Hospitalizations, 132,476 (23,707) (7,953)

Deaths, 352,123

Injections versus infections