International travel and increasing cases

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Multiple choice questions

Australian Tennis Open:

a. Good idea

b. Crass commercial insanity

c. Opportunity for highly infectious VOCs to enter Australia

d. Opportunities for cross infection during travel

UK football, mass hugs and chanting in the dressing room:

a. Good idea

b. Potential source of superspreading event

c. Worst possible example imaginable at the current time

d. Illustration of one rule for the elite and another rule for us Plebs

Brazil

Manaus, Amazonas state, health system has collapsed

Severe oxygen shortages, some hospitals have run out

Rapid rise, infections from new variant

Health professionals, many people could die due to lack of supplies and assistance

Infections linked to a new variant of the virus.

Brazilian mutation

South America, Portugal and Cape Verde barred from entering UK

Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay and Venezuela

(South Africa, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, Eswatini, Zambia, Malawi, Lesotho, Mozambique and Angola, the Seychelles, Mauritius)

Mutations associated with a rapid increase in cases

Grant Shapps, Brazilian variant not in the UK as far as we are aware

Next few days, then we should know

Reactivity

First detected in travellers going to Tokyo, then traced back to South America

Vaccines?

More cases all at the same time

China

Highest single-day infections since 1 March.

Cases, + 144

Hebei province, 22 million people in lockdown

20,000 rural residents sent to state-run quarantine facilities

Infection driver, asymptomatic cases in rural areas

First detection of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein N501 mutation in Italy in August, 2020.

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VOC-202012/01, spreading in UK, global threat

N501Y, involves one of the six key amino acids of the SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain

Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor

N501T detected in Italy in August

UK

Cases, + 46,169 + 45,553 + 48,682 = 3,118,518

Estimated R number

1 to 1.4

Daily infection growth rate range, of 0% to + 6% (8th January 2021)

Cases, + 48,682 = 3,260,258

Cases, last 7 days, 370,839 (down 7.4%)

Hospitalised, + 4,193 + 4,240 + 4,256 = 36,797 (3,626)

Last 7 days, 26,914 (up 34%)

Deaths, + 529 + 1,243 + 1,564 + 1,248 = 86,015

Last 7 days, 7,507 (up 50.3%)

UK death certificate deaths, 93,030

Vaccinated, first dose, 2,918,252 (Jan 15th)

Second dose, 437,977

United States

https:/covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases

Cases, + 213,885 + 219,090 + 222,944 = 22,982,927

Up 4.4 % in past 7 days

National positivity, 11.9%

Hospitalizations, 128,947 (23,891) (7,878)

Deaths, 379,451

Up 19.5% in past 7 days

US, Vaccinations

First doses, 11,444,000

Second dose, 1,230,000 (0.38%)

Indonesia

Restrictions rather than full lockdowns

Masks must be worn everywhere outside the home in Jakarta and West Java, subject to sanction

EUA for the Sinovac vaccine on 11 January 2021

President Jokowi received the first vaccination on 13 January

Oxford to follow

Social media influencers

Younger workers aged 18 to 59

Professor Amin Soebandrio

We are targeting those that are likely to spread the virus

Germany

Deaths, + 1,113

Spread of 2020 12 variant

Portugal

Went into lockdown overnight

Hungary

PM Viktor Orban, keen to start using China vaccine

National medicine authority