Dr John Campbell
@campbellteaching·3.3M subscribers·3.1K videos
New variant dangers
Posted
January 23, 2021
Views
230,670
Likes
8,692
Comments
4,137
Engagement
5.56%
January 23, 2021
230,670
8,692
4,137
5.56%
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22:43Now PlayingDenmark and the US
Strict lockdown
New daily cases down
UK variant, cases increasing 70 % a week
Sequencing every positive coronavirus test
United States is sequencing 0.3 percent of cases
Camilla Holten Moller, State Serum Institute Group
Without this variant, we would be in really good shape
If you just look at the reproduction number, you just wouldn’t see that it was in growth underneath at all
Dominant strain of the virus, by mid-February
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, B.1.1.7 could be prevalent by March
Daily coronavirus cases in Denmark could quadruple by the beginning of April
Tyra Grove Krause, Scientific Director, sequencing institute
This period is going to be a bit like a tsunami
First detected 14th December
Maybe since 14th November
Early data, UK variant 36% more contagious in Denmark
Vaccines, late start, large scale, April
AstraZeneca’s vaccine, EMA, mid-February
Ireland
Highest per capita prevalence
42 out of 92 tests positive for 2020 12 variant
US
CDC data
Past 7 days
New daily reported cases, down 20.4%
New daily reported deaths, down 7%
CoViD related hospitalizations, down 7.9%
Test positivity rate, 9.4%
Vacine doses, 19,714,000
Two doses, 2,756,000 (0.84%)
UK
UK variant may be more deadly, (PM)
Most common variant in UK
Mathematicians comparing death rates
It's largely the impact of this new variant that means the NHS is under such intense pressure
R = 0.8 – 1.0
New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag)
Realistic possibility that the virus had become more deadly, but this is far from certain
Patrick Vallance
There is evidence that there's an increased risk for those who have the new variant
New variant spreads between 30% and 70% faster
Hints it is about 30% more deadly
For example, with 1,000 60-year-olds infected
Old variant, 10 deaths
New variant, 13 deaths
CFR, 1% up to 1.3%
Fifty other countries
VOCs and vaccination
Pfizer and AZ vaccines still expected to work
More concern about South African and Brazilian variants
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