Dr John Campbell
@campbellteaching·3.3M subscribers·3.1K videos
Global deaths under-reported
Posted
November 3, 2021
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November 3, 2021
202,473
6,577
3,375
4.92%
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17:33Now PlayingUnder reporting of deaths, 19 months into the pandemic
Total deaths, 5,018,949
Total cases, 247,883,004
Total vaccine doses, 7,129,732,439
World Health Organization
Based on the excess mortality estimates produced for 2020
we are likely facing a significant undercount of total deaths directly and indirectly attributed to COVID-19
Many countries still lack functioning civil registration and vital statistics systems
Percentage of registered deaths
98% in the European
10% in the African region
Comparisons difficult
Excess mortality
The difference in the total number of deaths in a crisis,
compared to those expected under normal conditions
Therefore, includes direct and indirect impact
WHO, 2020 data
Official, 1,813,100
Lower bound, 3 million
Region of the Americas in 2020
Excess mortality estimates range from 1.34 to 1.46 million
60% more than reported
European Region in 2020
Excess mortality estimates range from
1.11 to 1.21 million
50% more than reported
Excess death calculations
Actual worldwide toll, 16.8 million excess deaths
95% probability, 10.3 million to 19.5 million
Official versus actual deaths (Economist)
US, deaths = 745,274
US, deaths = 860,000 to 1 million
China, deaths = 4,600
China, deaths = 150,000 to 1,700,000
India, deaths = 458,000
India, deaths = 1.2 million to 7.2 million
Russia, deaths = 236,462
Russia, deaths = 870,000 to 910,000
Indonesia, deaths = 143,457
Indonesia, deaths = 300,000 to 1.2 million
Pakistan, deaths = 28,477
Pakistan, deaths = 300,000 to 910,000
Bangladesh, deaths = 27,873
Bangladesh, deaths = 200,000 to 720,000
Turkey, deaths = 71,052
Turkey, deaths = 130,000 to 420,000
Mexico, deaths = 288,464
Mexico, deaths = 560,000 to 600,000
Brazil, deaths = 608,071
Brazil, deaths = 660,000 to 740,000
Factors
Death tolls are heavily influenced by the age structure of a country’s population
Rely on the assumption that officially published excess-mortality numbers are accurate
Covid-19 disruption, some governments may have changed how they compile data
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington
Total deaths are the estimated number of deaths attributable to COVID-19, including unreported deaths.
Reported and unreported deaths, 11.9 million
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