The Australian Protocol

Australia takes the courage of it's convictions

US

Half a billion free at home lateral flow tests

Military (1,000) helping hospitals

The omicron virus spread more rapidly than anyone thought

Texas

One omicron death

Man in his 50s

Underlying health conditions

Unvaccinated

Australia

NSW, cases + 3,763

Victoria, cases + 1,503

Australian thinking

To stop omicron with vaccination, near 100% efficacy with near 100% uptake

With no waning

Natural infection promotes antibody IgA

(vaccines generate IgM then IgG

Preventing vial replication in the upper airways

Allowing omicron infection up to the point where hospitalisations are manageable

Less pathogenic with shorter hospital stays

Natural immunity giving cross immunity to the next variant

Concurrent booster programme for the elderly and comorbid

Over time need for pharmaceutical and NPIs will diminish

If hospitalisations do rise, population will self-titrate

Millions of Covid cases by the end of January or early February

Infections, + 200,000 per day

Up to 4,000 hospitalisations a day

PM Mr Morrison

The modelling assumed the Omicron strain is as serious as Delta

Failed to account for boosters

or people taking sensible behavioural responses in what they're doing

So I wouldn't want to alarm people over that report.

That is not what we are actually expecting to happen

The grim predictions were highly unlikely

There is a range of scenarios,

of course the number of Omicron cases will increase.

It's highly infectious.

But the indications are that it is not as severe and our hospitals,

in NSW and Victoria, have been coping extremely well

Professor Paul Kelly, Australia chief medical officer

selective and misleading media reporting about ongoing modelling

the predicted hospitalisation estimations are unlikely.

Evidence about the characteristics of Omicron is still emerging but early trends seen both internationally and within Australia suggest that it is more transmissible

However, early indications around hospitalisation, ICU admission and death show that Omicron could be far less than Delta and other variants

Importantly, after almost four weeks of Omicron in Australia there are currently no confirmed Omicron cases in ICU and no deaths confirmed to date

Modelling, it's one of a range of tools and can't be viewed in isolation

A preliminary scenario, of many being considered to help inform decision making

Presents one of the worst case of all potential scenarios

including assumptions that the Omicron variant is as severe as the Delta variant,

an absence of hospital surge capacity,

a highly limited booster program,

no change to baseline public health and social measures

and an absence of spontaneous behaviour change in the face of rising case numbers

None of these five assumptions represent the likely state of events, let alone all of them together,

therefore presenting that scenario as the likely scenario that will occur is highly misleading

Former deputy chief health officer Nick Coatsworth

Whoever leaked the Doherty modelling without context has committed a gross injustice to the Australian people

Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt

Despite the rapid spread of Omicron

only a fraction of cases were ending up in hospitals

SA hospital data

UK data

Self-isolation pragmatism

People infected with Covid in England,

stop self-isolating,

negative lateral flows on day six and day seven

Strongly advised to limit, contact with vulnerable, crowded or poorly ventilated spaces, work from home

Sajid Javid acting on expert advice

Applies to everyone, regardless of vaccination status

Should still isolate if symptomatic

People not double-jabbed who have close contact with a positive case must still isolate for a full 10 days

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