Oil Analyst Exposes TRUTH Behind Trump Hormuz ‘FICTION’: It’s ‘All Up To China’

Oil analyst Rory Johnston tells Drop Site that Washington’s claim it is moving 10 million barrels a day through the Strait of Hormuz increasingly resembles “fiction” rather than exaggeration. Tanker trackers see only 4–6 million bpd, compared with roughly 20 million before the war.

With Hormuz restricted for nearly six months, strategic reserves and commercial inventories are being steadily depleted. Crude is near $90, but Johnston says the greater danger is refined fuel: U.S. diesel crack spreads are approaching $100 a barrel, nearly five times their seasonal norm. Even if crude prices halved, he warned, diesel could remain near $150 because of lost Gulf refinery supply, reduced Chinese fuel exports and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries.

Ansarallah’s attacks have curtailed Saudi oil through Bab al-Mandeb, forcing Riyadh to reroute barrels north through Egypt or back toward Hormuz, underscoring Iran’s continuing leverage.

Johnston said China has prevented a far worse crisis by cutting crude imports roughly 5.5 million bpd. That policy swing rivaled all OPEC+ cuts and likely prevented $150–$200 oil, but Beijing could reverse it at any time and China now controls where this goes. “It’s basically up to China.”

_________

➡️ FOLLOW Drop Site News for more independent news on war and politics

Stay INFORMED on our latest reporting: DropSiteNews.com

WATCH our weekly live show, streaming every TUESDAY morning, on Substack, YouTube, and Facebook

LISTEN to the show as a podcast on Apple, Spotify, RSS, or wherever you get your podcasts.

SUBSCRIBE to Drop Site News. Our reporting is FREE, and we are committed to keeping it that way.

To help support our work, please consider upgrading to a paid subscription, it’s what fuels our reporting

DONATE to support Drop Site's independent journalism. Help us continue our work with a tax-deductible contribution at donate.dropsitenews.com.

To make our reporting as accessible and shareable as possible, we are on a variety of social media platforms. Follow Drop Site for more, and don’t forget to share with others, that’s the easiest way to help support what we do:

Drop Site News

Jeremy Scahill

WhatsApp channel

Discord: We've launched a semi-private Discord server and are opening it up to our paid subscribers. Think of Discord as a sophisticated digital gathering space to interact with others in the developing Drop Site community.

Update to a paid subscription

Don’t like social media? We’ve got you covered. We launched a daily weekday newsletter, Drop Site Daily, which compiles the top stories our team is tracking throughout the day on social media, into one convenient, place