Grain Demand: Some POSITIVE News (Exports and Ethanol)

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The wheat market saw a rally on Thursday, driven by rumors of increased Chinese buying interest in US Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat. China has already purchased nearly 2 million metric tons (mmt) of US SRW wheat for the current marketing year, likely due to quality issues in its own crop. This news has pushed the pace of US wheat export sales ahead of last year's levels, although it remains the second weakest in the past decade. 🌾🇨🇳🌾

The USDA is set to release several important reports on January 12th, including quarterly Grain Stocks, monthly Crop Production/WASDE, and Winter Wheat Seedings. These reports can have a significant impact on the markets and may bring about trend changes. The January report will include the "final" 2023 US corn and soybean production figures, which traders will be closely watching, along with any changes in South American production estimates. 📊📈🌽

Brazil is experiencing a wetter weather pattern, with daily rainfall expected over the next 10 days. While this rainfall is beneficial for some areas, northern Brazil, which faced an abnormally dry period from September to December, could become "too wet." Additionally, rain is expected to return to southern Brazil in the 5-10 day period. These weather developments are being closely monitored as they can impact crop conditions and production. 🌦️🇧🇷🌱

US ethanol production declined last week, with weekly output dropping by 5.2%. Despite the weekly decrease, ethanol stocks increased marginally. Implied gasoline demand also experienced a significant drop compared to the previous week but remained up slightly over the same period last year. The ethanol market continues to be influenced by factors such as fuel demand and inventory levels. ⛽🍃📉

Oil prices saw a decline on Thursday, driven by reduced fuel demand and increased fuel inventories. WTI crude closed at $72.19 per barrel as gasoline stocks rose significantly by 10.9 million barrels. Distillate stocks also increased by 10.1 million barrels. Despite the drop in crude inventories by 5.5 million barrels, the surge in fuel stocks took precedence. Shipping disruptions in the Red Sea have influenced the dynamics of crude oil supply and demand. 🛢️⛽📉

The US labor market remains robust, with the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits falling to 202,000, the lowest since mid-October. This positive trend reflects a strong labor market, even as the demand for workers has slightly declined. The December jobs report, released today, is expected to show an increase in non-farm payrolls and a slight rise in unemployment compared to November. 📈💼🇺🇸

US ethanol production declined last week. Weekly output of 1.05mil barrels decreased 5.2% on the week but increased 9% vs. the same week last year. Ethanol stocks were pegged at 23.6mil barrels. The print was up marginally compared to the previous week, but -4.3% compared to the same week last year. Implied gasoline demand was -13% compared to the previous week and 15% vs. the same week last year. On average, over the last four weeks, implied US gasoline demand is up marginally vs. the same period last year. See charts below.

Oil prices declined on Thursday. Reduced fuel demand and increased fuel inventories caused oil prices to drop yesterday. WTI crude lost 0.7% to close at $72.19 per barrel. Gasoline stocks rose by 10.9 million barrels to 237 million barrels last week, the highest week-over-week increase in more than 30 years. Distillate stocks increased by 10.1 million barrels to 125.8 million barrels. The increase in fuel stocks overshadowed a drop in crude inventories of 5.5 million barrels. Shipping disruptions in the Red Sea have caused refiners and buyers of crude oil to turn to the US rather than sail around the Horn of Africa.

The US labor market remains strong even as the need for workers is declining. During the last week of 2023, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to 202,000, the lowest since mid-October. Economists were anticipating jobless claims to total 219,000. Even though hiring has slowed, new jobless claims are historically low. The December jobs report will be released this morning at 7:30am CST. Non-farm payrolls are projected to increase by 170,000, and unemployment is estimated to rise to 3.8%, up from 3.7% in November.