How Will USDA Surprise Us on Friday??

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Conab, Brazil's equivalent to the USDA, has reduced its forecasts for both Brazil's soybean and corn crops. The soybean estimate has been lowered by 4.2% to 155.3 million tons, but despite this reduction, Brazil is still on track to achieve a record soybean crop this season. Additionally, Brazil is expected to maintain its position as the world's leading soybean exporter, with an estimated export volume of 98.4 million tons. Conab has also downgraded its projection for Brazil's corn crop by nearly 11%, estimating it at 117.6 million tons. Corn exports are anticipated to decline to 35 million tons, down from 56 million tons in the previous year. 🌱🌽🇧🇷

Winter Storm Gerri is set to bring more winter weather to the Plains and Midwest. This storm is forecast to bring heavy snowfall and gusty winds to various regions. It is expected to drop snow across the Central Plains, moving eastward into southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana. The Midwest is likely to experience persistent snowfall and gusty winds throughout Friday. Some areas, particularly in northern Illinois and Michigan, could see more than 6 inches of snow accumulation. ❄️🌬️

US ethanol production increased during the past week, with a weekly output of 1.06 million barrels, marking a 1.2% increase compared to the previous week and a substantial 26% increase year-over-year. Ethanol stocks reached 24.4 million barrels, showing a 3.4% rise compared to the previous week but a slight decrease compared to the same period last year. Implied gasoline demand also saw positive growth, rising by 4.7% compared to the previous week and by 11% year-over-year. Over the last four weeks, implied US gasoline demand has increased by 1.2% compared to the same period in the previous year. 🌽🛢️🚗

Economists are anticipating an increase in inflation for the month of December. The expected rise is estimated at 0.2% compared to the previous month and a year-over-year increase of 3.2%. This potential uptick in inflation could have implications for the Federal Reserve's plans regarding interest rates. While the Fed had previously indicated three quarter-percentage-point rate cuts by the end of the year, the markets are anticipating a total of six rate cuts. Fed officials have suggested that rate hikes may be finished, but the possibility of rate cuts remains uncertain. The December CPI report, which could provide further insight, is set to be released today. 💹🏦💲

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved 11 spot-bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This decision allows everyday traders to buy and sell bitcoin through these ETFs without needing to own the cryptocurrency directly. The new ETFs began trading on the same day they were approved. Bitcoin settled just below $46,000 on the day of the announcement, following a substantial increase in its value since January 2023, when it was approximately $17,000 lower. Some critics argue that this approval could pose challenges for the SEC in terms of investor protection. 📈💰🪙