Excessive Corn Belt Rain... Are Crops at Risk??

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🌽 Corn Belt Weather

🌧️ Too much rain is becoming a problem in parts of the Corn Belt. Heavy rain from Iowa to Ohio and into Kentucky has caused flooding, with Indiana and Ohio seeing some of the heaviest amounts. More rain and severe storms are possible in the coming days, and some water levels could approach record highs. Localized crop damage has already been reported from strong winds, flooding, and heavy rain.

💧 Rainfall has been highly variable across the region. Southern Iowa and parts of Missouri saw drought conditions improve, while dry conditions worsened in central Illinois, western Iowa, eastern Minnesota, and northern Wisconsin. Since the beginning of August, Iowa has received 172% of normal rainfall, Illinois 162%, Indiana 255%, and Ohio 295%. Meanwhile, parts of the Plains remain very dry, with Oklahoma at just 18% of normal rainfall, South Dakota at 32%, Kansas at 41%, and North Dakota at 43%.

🌾 Areas Experiencing Drought

Corn: 29%

Soybeans: 26%

Winter wheat: 52%

Spring wheat: 63%

Cattle: 53%

📉 Grain Markets

🌽 Corn futures pulled back Thursday. December corn fell nearly 9 cents to $4.72 per bushel as traders took profits following Wednesday's rally. Large South American crops and favorable U.S. weather forecasts also pressured prices.

🫘 Soybeans finished mixed. November soybeans slipped a penny to $11.82 per bushel. Favorable weather and expectations for large South American supplies offset stronger demand for U.S. soybeans.

🌾 Wheat futures also edged lower. Early gains tied to Black Sea shipping concerns faded after Ukraine proposed halting attacks on civilian targets in the region. Russia has denied receiving the proposal.

🚢 Ukraine Grain Exports Plunge

🇺🇦 Ukrainian grain exports have fallen sharply. Russian attacks on Black Sea ports and vessels caused exports to drop 75% year over year during the first two weeks of August. The disruption comes at a difficult time, with wheat harvest at its peak, storage filling up, and corn harvest approaching.

📦 Farmers are struggling to sell their grain. Without export revenue, some farmers may not have enough money to cover expenses and plant winter or next year's crops. Ukraine is using rail, road, and Danube routes, but those alternatives cannot handle nearly as much grain as the country's Black Sea ports.

📊 U.S. Export Demand

🌽 U.S. corn export sales were stronger than expected. Weekly sales reached 410,700 MT, or about 16 million bushels, up 46% from the four-week average. Spain was the largest buyer, while new-crop corn sales reached 925,000 MT, or about 36 million bushels.

🫘 Soybean demand was mixed. Old-crop sales totaled 75,100 MT, or 3 million bushels, down 48% from the four-week average. However, new-crop soybean sales were strong at 1.8 MMT, or about 65 million bushels, with China the largest buyer.

🌾 Wheat sales remained soft. Sales totaled 255,900 MT, or 9 million bushels, down 14% from the previous week and 8% below the four-week average. Mexico was the largest buyer.

🇨🇳 China Keeps Buying U.S. Soybeans

🫘 China purchased another 125,000 MT of U.S. soybeans. The sale is for delivery during the 2026/27 marketing year. China has now purchased roughly 21% of its 25 MMT U.S. soybean commitment.

🧪 Fertilizer Prices Ease

📉 The global fertilizer market is showing signs of improvement. India received urea offers about 12% below its June purchase price, while urea prices have fallen by more than half from the $959 per ton paid in April.

⚠️ However, risks remain. Reduced shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt fertilizer trade, while stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks are keeping uncertainty high.

🥩 Tyson Cuts Beef Capacity

🏭 Tyson Foods is closing more beef facilities. The company will close plants in Illinois and Utah and is seeking a buyer for another facility in Washington. Tyson plans to consolidate its beef operations around major plants in Nebraska, Kansas, and Texas.

🐄 The closures highlight the severity of the cattle shortage. The U.S. cattle herd remains at its lowest level in more than seven decades, forcing packers to compete aggressively for expensive cattle. Cargill and JBS have also closed or repurposed facilities as the beef industry works to improve margins.