Iran War Update

Timestamped breakdown of the show below.

Trump is now threatening NATO because Europe will not join his Iran war. Which is rich, because just days ago he was bragging that Iran was beaten and he did not need anybody. Now suddenly he wants help reopening the Strait of Hormuz. But Britain said no. Germany said no. Italy said no. Greece said no. Australia said no. Japan said no. South Korea gave the diplomatic version of maybe-no. That is not a coalition. That is the rest of the world looking at Trump’s mess and deciding they want no part of it.

And yes, Congress made it harder for a president to yank the US out of NATO on his own. But let’s not kid ourselves. Trump could still gut the alliance in practice even if America technically stayed in on paper. He could simply refuse to honor it. Same result, different paperwork.

Trump is also pressuring China to help reopen Hormuz, while dangling his summit with Xi. But that is not much of a threat when Trump wants the summit more than China does. Beijing knows that. So once again, Trump is bluffing from a weaker position than he wants people to believe.

Over the weekend, Trump hit Kharg Island, but notably did not hit Iran’s oil infrastructure. And there is a reason for that. If he actually wrecks Iran’s oil exports, prices go even higher. Worse, Iran could retaliate by targeting oil production across the Gulf, including Saudi facilities. So when Trump talks about obliterating Iran’s oil sector, understand what that means: he is threatening the global economy too.

Axios says the war could drag on until September, even while the White House keeps pretending this is a short operation. But Iran gets a vote. Trump can declare victory whenever he wants. Iran can still keep Hormuz squeezed and keep the missiles flying. That is the reality he keeps trying to talk his way around.

Inside Trumpworld, even aides are reportedly starting to realize this was reckless. One source says Trump basically decided, “I just want to do it.” Israel is reportedly running low on interceptors. Even David Sacks is now calling for an off-ramp. Trump, meanwhile, snapped at ABC’s Mariam Khan when she asked why we are sending 5,000 Marines and sailors into the region, because he had no good answer.

At the same time, the propaganda machine is in overdrive, with absurd stories about Iran’s new leader that sound more like bad disinformation than serious analysis. The wider battlefield is getting uglier too: Zelensky says Russia supplied Iran with Shahed drones, Netanyahu reportedly wants talks with Zelensky, and Ukraine just hit Moscow with a major drone strike.

And back home, Americans are already paying for this war. Gas prices are up. Oil is high. Inflation risks are rising. Trump’s energy secretary is actually claiming high prices are good for America, which is nonsense unless you are an oil company. Add in Trump using a dead US soldier’s image for fundraising and threats against broadcasters, and the through-line is obvious: chaos abroad, propaganda at home, and higher prices for you and me.