Trump's BIG BET COLLAPSES in Front of HIS FACE

Brian Kabateck and Shant Karnikian discuss how Republicans' historic 2024 gains with Latino voters are evaporating less than a year later, threatening GOP redistricting plans in Texas. Trump won about 46% of Latino voters nationally in 2024 (up from 32% in 2020) and flipped every county in the heavily Latino Rio Grande Valley. Texas Republicans then passed an aggressive redistricting map targeting five Democratic-held congressional seats—four of them majority Latino, with one district 90% Latino. But the gamble is collapsing: Trump's approval among Texas Latinos dropped from 44% in February to 32% in October 2025. A UH-TSU Texas Trends Survey found when asked how they'd vote if they could do 2024 again, Texas Latinos backed Kamala Harris by 11 points—a 19-point swing from the 8-point margin they gave Trump. Democratic strategist Chuck Rocha predicts Latinos could swing back 5-20 points. The hosts explain two key factors: aggressive immigration enforcement that profiles and terrorizes brown people regardless of citizenship status, and the ongoing affordability crisis hitting working-class Latino families hard. Brian draws parallels to California's 1994 Prop 187, which cost Republicans the Latino vote for a generation. The Supreme Court's shadow docket allowed the Texas redistricting to proceed without oral arguments or written opinion, but Democrats are showing strength in 2025 special elections.

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