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James Carville: Trump's Numbers Are Cratering — And Republicans Know It
Posted
August 12, 2026
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August 12, 2026
32,524
1,485
178
5.11%
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16:47
16:15Now PlayingJames Carville and Albert Hunt break down a primary night that was, on balance, good for Democrats — and bad for the "socialists have taken over" narrative. A Democratic Socialist candidate for Wisconsin governor lost to a moderate after a "Thanksgiving quote" she refused to walk back, while liberal-not-radical candidates won in Minnesota. James flags massive double-digit polling misses in Wisconsin, Michigan, and New Jersey. Albert argues Wisconsin Democrats keep botching candidate recruitment despite a deep bench. They dig into Abdul El-Sayed's Michigan win, Tom Friedman's column urging him toward a pro-Israel, anti-Netanyahu stance, and opponent Mike Rogers' turn to election denialism. They close on AOC's "Pelosi progressive" rebrand and a preview of Lindsey Graham's sister's tough South Carolina runoff — all against James's thesis: Trump's number is sliding fast, and he's becoming less relevant by the week.
Topics
Trump's Republican approval sliding from the mid-90s to ~80
Why primary night undercut the "socialist takeover" narrative
Wisconsin's Democratic Socialist governor candidate loses to a moderate
Connecticut's Larson vs. Bronin — generational, not ideological
Minnesota: Matt Little's win, Peggy Flanagan's Senate primary victory
AIPAC's spending in Minnesota and why it may hurt Democrats who take it
The "Pelosi progressives" framing
Trump's endorsed candidate gets "clobbered" in Minnesota
The historic scale of this cycle's polling misses
The "Thanksgiving quote" controversy and her refusal to retract it
Wisconsin Democrats' recurring candidate-recruitment problem
Contrast with Illinois/Pennsylvania-caliber recruiting
James's core argument: candidates matter more than field ops or fundraising
Abdul El-Sayed's win and Tom Friedman's pro-Israel, anti-Netanyahu advice
Mike Rogers' shift from Trump critic to election denier
AOC's evolution into a "Pelosi progressive," per Pelosi herself
Preview: Lindsey Graham's sister's South Carolina runoff
Timeline
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