The Polls, The Upset, and Wisconsin's Road to 2028 | Trailblaze

Jamal Simmons and Matt Butler are joined by longtime Wisconsin operative Joe Zepecki to break down one of the wildest primaries of the cycle: David Crowley's stunning comeback from 20 points down to beat Francesca Hong for the Democratic nomination for governor. Zepecki explains how the Crowley campaign clawed back, why the polls weren't as wrong as they looked, and what it'll take to unite Hong and Crowley voters ahead of a must-win fall matchup against MAGA Republican Tom Tiffany. They dig into why this race is about far more than one governorship — it's about who certifies Wisconsin's 2028 presidential results and whether Democrats can finally win a blue trifecta and redraw fairer congressional maps. Plus: lessons on polling primaries versus general elections, Rebecca Cooke's rematch in WI-3, Pete Buttigieg's swing through the state, and why every 2028 hopeful needs to prove they can win in Wisconsin.

Topics Covered

David Crowley's comeback from 20 points down to beat Francesca Hong in the Wisconsin governor primary

Why the polls weren't as far off as the final margin suggested

The 3,850-vote margin and how razor-thin the race really was

Uniting Hong and Crowley voters into one coalition for the fall

Wisconsin's stakes: certifying the 2028 election and winning a blue trifecta

Tom Tiffany's record — supporting Ken Paxton's 2020 election lawsuit and voting against certifying Arizona and Pennsylvania's electors

Why polling primaries is harder than polling general elections

State Navigate's polling methodology and the debate over weighting young voters

Bernie Sanders and AOC staying out of the primary

Rebecca Cooke's rematch against Derek Van Orden in Wisconsin's 3rd District

Pete Buttigieg's town hall for Cooke and his "Win the Era" PAC

Which 2028 hopefuls need to prove themselves in Wisconsin

The history of Wisconsin's primary calendar and why it moved to April

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