IS A GROUND INVASION COMING?

“You’re talking about hundreds dead over a period of at least weeks.”

Robert Pape believes there is now a 70% chance American troops will be sent into Iran, potentially within the next month.

He warns that hundreds of American soldiers could be killed within weeks.

Robert has spent more than 30 years studying how wars escalate. He has taught members of the US Air Force and began modelling the consequences of America bombing Iran more than two decades ago.

I began this conversation by telling him that I had hoped I wouldn’t need to see him again.

I meant that I had hoped time would prove his warnings wrong. Instead, several of the developments he forecast when we first met have now happened.

What makes Robert’s work so valuable is that he looks beyond whether a military target is successfully hit. He studies how an attack changes public opinion, strengthens nationalism and leaves leaders caught between withdrawing or going further.

We discussed things like:

- The risk of a limited operation becoming an open-ended war.

- Reopening the Strait of Hormuz and why it may be harder than people realise.

- Rising fuel prices and the impact they could have on the global economy.

- Iran’s ability to conceal drones and missiles across difficult terrain.

- Political pressure from the US midterm elections shaping what happens next.

Robert explained that weapons could be hidden across a mountainous area larger than California. Even destroying most of them may leave enough to threaten ships travelling through one of the world’s most important energy routes.

His analysis is grounded in decades of research, historical evidence and recurring patterns in conflict, which he uses to explain where the current situation may be heading.

For anyone trying to understand how the conflict with Iran could become a much larger war, I strongly recommend watching this conversation.