Republican House Majority Shrinks As Democrats Flip Final Seat

The last remaining House race has officially been called, and Democrat Adam Gray has ousted incumbent Republican Congressman John Duarte. This gives Republicans 220 seats in the incoming Congress while Democrats will have 215. And while the Republicans have the majority, they are barely hanging onto it and can only afford 2 dissentions on any given measure. Ring of Fire’s Farron Cousins explains what this means for the next two years.

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*This transcript was generated by a third-party transcription software company, so please excuse any typos.

The final house race that was left to be called from the 2024 election was officially called on Tuesday of this week. And the Democrat, the Democratic challenger, managed to flip the seat from the Republican incumbent. Now, this race really was a razor thin margin. I think it was 157 vote difference between the two candidates. But nevertheless, the Democrats flipped a Republican controlled seat. So we now have the final makeup of the incoming House of Representatives. It will be 220 Republicans to 215 Democrats. So yes, Republicans pass the 218 threshold to have the majority, but they can only afford for the next two years to lose two Republicans on any measure in that house. If they still want to pass it, two, they lose. Three Democrats get the majority there, assuming all the Democrats are of course voting together. This is a razor thin margin, folks, meaning of course that Republicans have no margin for error over in the Senate.

On the other hand, Republicans do have a six seat majority, 53 Republicans to 47 Democrats. So if Democrats want to prevail on any measure, which will include obviously confirmation hearings for Donald Trump's cabinet appointees, they have to flip four Republicans. Now, flipping four outta 53 is a lot more difficult than flipping three outta 220, but that's the way it is. A razor thin majority for Republicans in the house, and a slightly better yet still not super great for Republicans majority in the Senate. That is what we are dealing with. And yes, the numbers do have to be four in the Senate because even if you only flip three, then you got 50 50. JD Vance as vice president comes in as the tiebreaker and Republicans win. So you gotta flip at least four. But that gives us a little bit of hope, right? Not just hope that maybe we can flip Republicans on some issues to vote with Democrats or vote against Republican things. Hope that this country is not as far right as Republicans are telling us it is right now. Okay? A five seat advantage in the house, a six seat advantage in the Senate. Donald Trump couldn't even get 50% of the popular vote. This was no mandate, right? This election was not a referendum.

That's what can give us hope, because it shows that 2026 is

Not lost. 2028 is not lost. The next two years will be rough as hell. Absolutely. But if Republicans do what they say they're going to do, then 2026, maybe a walk in the park for Democrats in that election, voters could easily turn against them. So we got two years of suffering guaranteed. But considering the fact that the public did not overwhelmingly pick Republicans this year, that's reason for hope, then maybe we can flip 'em back in two years time.