December 10, 2024
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4:13Now PlayingDonald Trump’s plans for a second term aren’t just a threat to the US economy – they will have an impact on nearly every country that does any kind of business with the United States. Global economists and economic institutes are sounding the alarm bells about how Trump is going to harm their economies while also warning that the damage in the US could be far worse than what’s already been predicted by our economists. Ring of Fire’s Farron Cousins explains what’s happening.
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*This transcript was generated by a third-party transcription software company, so please excuse any typos.
It's no secret that economists believe that Donald Trump is of course going to absolutely destroy the US economy through his dual policies of mass deportations, and of course tariffs on everybody. But it's not just the US economy that he is going to tank. Global economists outside of the United States are now also sounding the alarm bells about the fact that, yeah, the US is gonna get hit the hardest, but we depend on them for things, for trade, for, you know, uh, uh, uh, military support. And we too will suffer when, not if, but when he sends the US spiraling into a recession, possibly even a full-blown depression. Here is what Paul Mortimer Lee of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research in the United Kingdom had to say. First he said that Donald Trump's Ill considered rushed and damaging combination of tariffs. The mass expulsion of illegal immigrants tax cuts and spending efficiencies was likely to tip the US economy into recession. He then added in a worst case scenario where immigrant expulsions are massive tariff increases, hit straight away and retaliation is swift. And effective GDP could contract by two to three percentage points.
Mortimer Lee said Trump's immigration policies would be the most damaging given the important role this group plays in the US economy. And he added expelling 5 million workers could reduce GDP by close to 2.5% since the expulsions would continue for years. The reduced rate of growth in GDP would be persistent, not a one-off shock like tariffs, but he also then went on to warn that tariffs, of course, are gonna spike inflation. But here's the thing, his numbers are off, and the reason his numbers are off is because he's low balling it. He's like, if they, if they deport 5 million people, dude, nobody's saying 5 million people. We have had some members of Trump's team say 25 million people.
So you take that number that you have, like the conservative estimate of 5 million and you multiply that by five. Now, I'm not saying that that means you multiply the contraction of GDP by five as well. It's not on the same kind of scale, but if 5 million deportations get us 2.5% contraction, shrinking of the economy, then I can only imagine the damage that 10 million, 15, 20, 25 expulsions would cause for our global economy. It would be worldwide economic devastation. And again, that's not me saying that, that is these economists that are looking at us in horror over what we've picked to be the next president telling us that we're all screwed.
Like, yeah, us, you're gonna get screwed the worst. But y'all have screwed us over now too. That's what they're saying. You idiots in the United States had one job. Don't let the crazy person get to the White House because his policies are going to harm everyone and you failed. That is the message they want to send to us. It's a message, of course, they actually tried to send before the election, but as a, as a country, as a voting population, we apparently didn't listen and we're gonna hit, get hit the hardest, of course, but they're gonna get hit too, and they're not gonna be happy about it. So when we finally get to the point where we can fix these things, when Trump is out of office, it may be a lot harder to have, you know, allies, trade partners. If they know that the next time a Republican gets in office, they're just gonna do the same horrible thing again.
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