Utah Political Watch
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Should Democrats Drop Out in Red States to Win? — with G. Elliot Morris
Posted
August 14, 2026
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August 14, 2026
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29:35Now PlayingBryan Schott sits down with G. Elliott Morrisformer lead data editor at 538, now running the electiondata newsletter Strength in Numbers and the forecasting site 50 Plus One () to dig into a trend reshaping redstate politicsDemocrats stepping aside so an independent can take on the GOP oneonone.
They start with Morris's recent analysis of Montana's threeway Senate race () , where independent Seth Bodnar is outpolling Democrat Alani Bankhead against Republican Kurt Almeand only pulls ahead of the Republican once the Democrat exits the equation. Bryan draws the direct line to Utah's 2022 Senate race, when Democrats cleared the field for independent Evan McMullin against Mike Lee, and the two trace the same dynamic playing out in Nebraska with independent Dan Osborne.
From there, the conversation widens into the numbers driving the 2026 midtermsTrump's statebystate approval collapse (including in Utah), the "affordability problem" dragging down his presidency, and why Morris's forecast gives Democrats an 85% chance of retaking the House () and a 55% chance of flipping the Senateplus how middecade redistricting has already cost Democrats roughly six House seats.
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