Utah Political Watch
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Why Independents Are Beating Democrats in Red States: G. Elliott Morris on Montana, Nebraska & Utah
Posted
August 14, 2026
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August 14, 2026
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27:59Now PlayingPollster and election forecaster G. Elliott Morris (formerly of 538, now running Strength in Numbers and 50 Plus One) joins Bryan Schott to break down why independent candidates are suddenly outperforming Democrats in deep-red states—from Montana's three-way Senate race to Nebraska's Dan Osborne—and how it echoes Utah's 2022 Evan McMullin campaign against Mike Lee.
We also dig into Morris's state-by-state tracking of Trump's approval rating (including surprising numbers in Utah), his 2026 midterm forecast (85% odds Democrats retake the House, 55% for the Senate), the "affordability problem" driving Trump's numbers down, and how redistricting has already reshaped the House battlefield.
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