AST SpaceMobile Gains on Launch Plan & New Government Contracts

AST SpaceMobile shares climb after the satellite firm set out an ambitious plan to launch 45 to 60 satellites in 2025 and 2026. The firm also said it received two additional early-stage contracts for the US government. Bloomberg's Bruce Einhorn reports.

AST SpaceMobile shares climb as much as 19% Tuesday after the satellite firm set out an ambitious plan to launch 45 to 60 satellites in 2025 and 2026. The firm also said it received two additional early-stage contracts for the US government.

ANALYST COMMENTARY

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Colin Canfield (overweight, $30 price target)

Expects ASTS to outperform in trading Tuesday citing positive catalysts across liquidity, spectrum and government opportunities

These metrics partially offset the greater-than-expected Ebitda and free cash flow burn versus the Street’s expectations, the analyst says, as well as the modest schedule slippage

The overhangs like cash flow burn should not come as “new news to investors,” he says

“But we think the exercise of hitting liquidity, spectrum and opportunity milestones can be a straightforward mechanic of ‘AST hitting its stride’”

“While we think investors may focus mostly on the commercial unlock of direct-to-device, we think AST’s strategic advantages in digital payload technology and tech teaming partners may ultimately drive a government-driven story that significantly accelerates over the next few years”

Scotiabank analyst Andres Coello (sector perform, $42.90 price target)

Analyst turns cautious on the stock, saying his concerns are now beyond satellite manufacturing

“We question whether the way we are modeling subscriber loading and monetization remains valid as T-Mobile is, in our view, pushing customers to get direct-to-cell for free in postpaid plans rather than charging a specific monthly fee”

“A scenario where T-Mobile discloses few paid direct-to-cell customers in Q3/25 results (or not worth reporting) could create a negative demand reference with severe implications on ASTS”

“SpaceMobile could claim that a better service vs. Starlink means AT&T and Verizon subs will be more willing to pay, which may be true, but it will take almost a year before it can prove Starlink wrong”

Uncertainty over monetization model and global spectrum ambitions are contributing to the analyst’s cautious view

Says Starlink now has the first-mover advantage

Investors are showing relief Tuesday because “despite the FM1 delay, the company continues aiming at December 2025 for a soft non-continuous launch in the US, as well as full commercial service in mid-2026”

B Riley Securities analyst Mike Crawford (buy, $60 price target)

“We remain thrilled with the company’s comprehensive agreement to gain long-term access to 45 MHz of L-Band spectrum, with the US Bankruptcy Court approving the proposed transaction involving Ligado and Viasat (VSAT — buy, $52 PT) on 6/23”

--------

Watch Bloomberg Radio LIVE on YouTube

Weekdays 7am-6pm ET

Follow us on X

Subscribe to our Podcasts:

Bloomberg Daybreak

Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg Intelligence

Balance of Power

Bloomberg Businessweek

Listen on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app:

Apple CarPlay

Android Auto

Visit our YouTube channels:

Bloomberg Podcasts

Bloomberg Television

Bloomberg Originals