Political Stakes Quite High in Possible Government Shutdown

Wendy Schiller, professor at Brown University, discusses the latest DC headlines, including a possible shutdown and whether the Democrats have any leverage one year out from the midterms.

Congress is careening toward an Oct. 1 government shutdown as lawmakers remain divided over how to fund the government.

Democrats are demanding a stopgap funding bill that would reverse Republicans’ Medicaid cuts and extend Affordable Care Act subsidies set to expire at the end of the year.

President Donald Trump said Tuesday that he wouldn’t attend a previously announced meeting with Democratic leaders of both chambers until they drop their demands, raising the odds of a shutdown. House Democrats have said they’re going to meet as a caucus to discuss strategy.

Senate Democrats on Sept. 19 defeated a House-passed GOP bill to extend government funding through Nov. 21 without policy changes, while Senate Republicans voted down the Democrats’ counter-proposal.

The House had adjourned for recess after passing its stopgap measure, putting pressure on Senate Democrats to accept their bill.

A funding lapse would cause the fourth government shutdown since 2013, cutting off key services and leading to furloughs of government employees.

Some Republicans have said a shutdown could bolster Trump’s efforts to block congressionally appropriated funds and shrink the federal workforce.

The linked presentation covers the status of fiscal 2026 funding bills and stopgap measures, and shutdown history and impacts.

A fresh threat from President Donald Trump’s budget office of mass firings of federal workers if the government shuts down Oct. 1 incensed Democratic leaders and ramped up the political and economic stakes if lawmakers and the White House can’t reach a deal.

A memo sent Wednesday night from the White House Office of Management and Budget directs agencies to plan to permanently lay off federal workers in programs that do not align with Trump’s priorities if the deadline to pass government funding lapses.

Democratic leaders said they wouldn’t back down in the face of the administration’s hardball tactic and it swiftly stoked partisan tensions in the capital. The threat also worsened the potential disruption to the economy with an already weakening labor market since a shutdown now could trigger permanent dismissals of government workers instead of temporary furloughs.

Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, whose state is home to many federal workers, denounced Trump for “mafia-style blackmail, with his threats ultimately harming the American people.”

Republican congressional leaders were largely quiet on the mass firing threat but Senator Bernie Moreno of Ohio said he’d back permanent layoffs in a prolonged government shutdown. At the White House, Trump pinned the blame on Democrats for demanding that health care priorities be addressed in any spending package.

“This is political by the Democrats. They asked us to do something that’s totally unreasonable,” Trump said.

The threat of mass firings came after Trump scrapped plans to meet with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, both of whom said they won’t be intimidated.

“These unnecessary firings will either be overturned in court or the administration will end up hiring the workers back,” Schumer said in a statement. Senate Democrats last week blocked a short-term Republican spending bill and demanded negotiations to extend expiring health care subsidies and avert a surge in Obamacare insurance premiums.

Yet Schumer himself publicly worried in March that the Trump administration would seek to use a shutdown to eviscerate agencies, suggesting that court challenges could roll back some of Trump’s unilateral spending cuts if the government stayed open. Senate Democrats provided key votes to advance a Republican spending bill then, but Schumer has changed tactics now after a backlash from the party’s progressive base.

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