March 25, 2026
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6:54Now PlayingBrian Belski, CEO & CIO at Humilis Investment Strategies, discusses the inflationary impact of the oil price shock.
The world economy’s first signs of a synchronized shock emerged in business surveys revealing how the Iran war’s fallout is crippling growth momentum and stoking prices.
Multiple purchasing manager indexes compiled by S&P Global for March showed declines. Among the releases on Tuesday, composite measures for the US and the euro zone were lower than economists predicted. Australia’s equivalent gauge slumped to indicate a sudden contraction, and Indian factory activity slowed to the weakest since 2021.
Several price readings surged meanwhile, with input cost inflation in Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, quickening to the fastest pace in more than three years. A similar gauge for UK manufacturing jumped the most since 1992.
The provisional results were gathered in the second half of March, capturing the mounting gloom among global businesses at the persistence of the Iran war and its mushrooming fallout.
Collectively, the indexes offer an initial illustration of the reverberations on prosperity of a conflict that has taken an immediate and crushing toll on energy supplies crucial to the functioning of some of the world’s biggest economies.
Alarm at the consequences has already gripped policymakers, with European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde declaring last week that the hostilities sparked by US President Donald Trump’s attack on Iran have stoked “upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth.”
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