Stocks Rise, Oil Falls as Truce Prospects Weighed

Ian Wyatt, Chief Economist at Huntington Bank, discusses the markets, AI investment, and his outlook for rate cuts in 2026.

Stocks and bonds rose while oil fell as traders weighing the viability of US-Iran ceasefire talks sent markets to a series of big swings.

The S&P 500 added about 1% as efforts by the US to end the war gathered pace, eclipsing news that Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal and maintained attacks on Israel and Gulf Arab states. Brent dropped to around $100. Treasuries pared this month’s losses.

President Donald Trump has been pushing for talks with Iran in a bid to halt the fighting, with the US compiling a 15-point peace proposal, according to people familiar with the matter. Yet those efforts have been clouded by uncertainty over the structure of negotiations and how any deal would be arranged.

Meanwhile, Tehran keeps signaling little willingness to compromise. A move by the US to start indirect talks is illogical and not viable at this stage of the conflict, Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency reported on Wednesday, citing informed sources it didn’t identify.

“Markets are positioning for a conflict resolution, despite lingering strategic ambiguity,” said Elias Haddad at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. “Ultimately, Iran’s response to the US de-escalation pivot will decide whether peak fear is behind us or still ahead.”  Oil remained lower as traders weighed a diplomatic push by the US to end the war with Iran.

Global benchmark Brent was trading near $101 a barrel. The possibility of a US resolution with Iran shaved away some of the risk premium that’s supported prices this month as the conflict upended global energy shipping.

After being rocked by weeks of volatility, traders are taking to the sidelines, pushing liquidity lower. Some investors saw the lull in prices as a rare off-ramp after crowding into long positions since the start of the month. Still, the market continues to trade off of each new development in the Middle East situation, with futures bouncing in a wide range.

Brent fell as much as 7%, before paring losses Wednesday. Iranian state media said an unnamed senior security official has listed five conditions for the US and Israel to end the war in the Middle East, including a complete halt to “aggression and assassinations.”

A report that Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant has been struck again also pushed prices off their lows.

The US drafted a 15-point plan to help bring the conflict to a close, according to people familiar. Earlier, President Donald Trump’s administration ordered the 82nd Airborne Division to deploy about 2,000 soldiers to the region, adding to confusion over the trajectory of the conflict.

“The market is trading like a cease fire is more likely than not, but I also wonder if it’s a lack of shorts left standing to cover, leading to such extreme volatility,” said Scott Shelton, an energy specialist at TP ICAP Group Plc.

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