We're Living In a New Age of Economic Warfare Says Fishman

Wall Street traders paced a rebound in stocks as an oil rally waned after Israel agreed to direct talks with Lebanon, bolstering expectations that a US ceasefire deal will hold. The US and Iran prepared for peace talks in Pakistan after agreeing on a two-week ceasefire, though issues such as Israel’s offensive in Lebanon and the opening of Hormuz remain unresolved.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to hold direct talks with Lebanon, with the focus on disarming Hezbollah. President Donald Trump has called him, asking for a scale-back in strikes to ensure the success of negotiations with Iran, NBC reported. Ed Fishman, Director of the Center for Geoeconomics, Council on Foreign Relations joins Bloomberg Businessweek Daily to discuss the economic impact on the globe. US consumer spending barely rose in February against a backdrop of persistent inflation that’s set to accelerate due to the Iran war.

Inflation-adjusted consumer spending increased 0.1% after stagnating in January, continuing an extended period of lackluster demand, a report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed Thursday.

The so-called core personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy items, increased 0.4% from January. From the prior year, the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation advanced 3%. Spending on goods rose for the first time in three months, driven by a rebound in motor vehicle purchases. Services outlays edged up, fueled by transportation services.

The latest spending figures are consistent with a consumer who has grown more cautious over the last six months amid cost-of-living concerns and a sluggish job market. Real disposable income declined 0.5%, the most in nearly a year, according to the BEA.

Inflationary pressures have mounted more recently as the war drives up the cost of fuels and materials. Some companies have already started to pass along those costs or announced plans to do so. Higher tax refunds helped support spending in February, but the rise in energy prices risks blunting that tailwind in the months ahead.

“When households are in the midst of or are anticipating financial hardship, they pull back on spending in an act of self-preservation,” said Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet, a personal finance platform. “This can drive real changes to the larger economy, in the form of slower growth.”

Delta Air Lines Inc. said it’s “looking to do more” fare increases beyond what has already been levied. And the US Postal Service plans to raise prices by 8% on some packages until mid-January of next year.

Oil Prices

While oil prices tumbled on Wednesday after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in exchange for Tehran allowing safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, Brent crude futures are still about $25 a barrel more expensive than before the war.

A more updated picture of inflation is due Friday with the March consumer price index report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists expect a 0.9% increase in the CPI — the sharpest one-month advance since 2022 — after the war pushed gas prices up by over $1 per gallon.

The BEA data also showed the firm PCE price index was concentrated in goods. Prices of recreational goods, clothing and energy picked up from the start of the year.

At the same time, a closely watched metric of services inflation that excludes energy and housing climbed 0.2%, the smallest advance since September.

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