Hormuz Traffic Still Blocked as Only Iran-Linked Ships Cross

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained blocked Thursday, limited to a handful of Iran-linked ships, another sign that a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran has yet to improve flows through the world’s key energy chokepoint.

Just seven vessels, all of which have either called at Iranian ports or were carrying Iranian cargo, were observed making the voyage out of the Persian Gulf on Wednesday and into Thursday morning. Normal transits in both directions are more like 135 a day.

Michelle Brouhard, Head of Policy and Geopolitical Risk at Kpler joins to discuss what this means for oil market moving forward. The US and Iran prepared for peace talks in Pakistan with a fragile ceasefire largely holding, though issues such as Israel’s offensive in Lebanon and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved.

US Vice President JD Vance is expected to lead the American delegation in discussions scheduled for Islamabad on Saturday, while Iranian officials were due to arrive in the Pakistani capital on Thursday. Both sides appear to have paused strikes across the region after President Donald Trump’s announcement of a truce after nearly six weeks of fighting.

The exception is in Lebanon, where Israel’s ongoing campaign against Tehran-aligned Hezbollah risks undermining the negotiations. Israel’s military on Thursday told residents in eight Beirut neighborhoods to leave ahead of strikes, after a major operation that killed more than 200 people the previous day.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he agreed to hold direct talks with Lebanon about the conflict, with the focus on disarming Hezbollah. Trump called the Israeli leader on Wednesday and asked him to scale back strikes to ensure the success of negotiations with Iran, NBC reported, citing an unidentified senior administration official. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Israel’s strikes in Lebanon are a “clear violation” of the ceasefire and “will render negotiations meaningless.”

Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut as shipowners await clarification on the status of the key waterway. Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization published two safe routes for shipping, according to state media, though traffic remains a fraction of pre-war levels.

Trump vowed to keep troops in the Persian Gulf ahead of the talks in Pakistan, “until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with.” He added that the Strait of Hormuz would soon be open and safe to use.

Read More: Hormuz Traffic Still Blocked as Iran Tries to Formalize Control

Iran effectively shut down Hormuz, where roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas typically flows, after the US and Israel began airstrikes on Feb. 28. Control over the waterway — and safe passage for tankers — will be a major focus of talks as fears linger of a global energy supply crisis.

Markets reflected the lingering uncertainty, with oil prices rebounding after Wednesday’s steep declines and stocks falling. Brent crude traded about 2% higher at $97 a barrel at 4:53 p.m. in London on Thursday.  While sporadic airstrikes were reported in Iran and across the Middle East in the early hours of the ceasefire, there were no reports on Thursday. That narrowed the international focus on Lebanon, where Israel revived its campaign against Hezbollah after the militant group started firing rockets across the Israel-Lebanon border at the start of the war. The two sides previously engaged in a full-blown conflict for about two months in 2024, before a tentative ceasefire in November of that year. The Lebanese government has pledged to disarm Hezbollah, but hasn’t succeeded and the group refuses to do so.

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