Col Daniel Davis: Ukraine's Drone Attack on Russia WON'T CHANGE the Course of the War

Daniel Davis Deep Dive Merch: Etsy store

The main argument is that individual military actions matter less than their overall impact on the outcome of a war. A recent Ukrainian strike on Russian bombers may have looked tactically impressive but likely won’t affect the broader war due to Russia’s ability to replace lost aircraft. Russia retains significant advantages—manpower, air power, and industrial capacity—while Ukraine is at a disadvantage, especially in a prolonged war of attrition.

The attack also occurred just before peace talks in Istanbul, and may actually undermine Ukraine's position, hardening Russia’s stance. Negotiation leverage clearly lies with Russia, and unless Ukraine is willing to make major concessions, the talks are unlikely to produce results.

Russia has already signaled it will continue fighting if its demands aren’t met. The U.S. and Germany’s recent green-lighting of Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russia may provoke further escalation, possibly with retaliatory Russian missile strikes on major Ukrainian targets.

Overall, the message is clear: while symbolic attacks might capture global attention, they don’t change the strategic balance—and may even worsen the prospects for peace.