Russia & Iran: Re-Alignment in the Works /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Andrei Martyanov

Daniel Davis Deep Dive Merch: Etsy store

The conversation centers on whether Russia is a weak or ineffective ally—especially in the context of its response to Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran. Western media often portrays Russia as too weak or reluctant to help allies like Iran militarily, but Russian expert Andrei Martyanov strongly criticizes this view as propaganda based on ignorance and poor journalism.

Key Points:

Russia-Iran Military Dynamic:

Russia did offer Iran military support (e.g., air defense systems), but Iran declined.

This decision was driven by parts of Iran’s political elite—especially urban, pro-Western factions—who hoped rejecting Russian help might win favor with the West. That gamble failed when the West did not come to Iran's aid during Israeli attacks.

Iran’s Miscalculation:

Iran ratified a Russian economic agreement just before the attacks, but President Raisi (referred to mistakenly as “Peshkan”) delayed signing it until after the strikes began—suggesting Iran misread the geopolitical situation.

After the strikes, Iran quickly pivoted back to Russia, initiating high-level defense and diplomatic meetings to reestablish deeper cooperation.

Why Russia Didn’t Intervene Militarily:

The idea that Russia "failed" Iran is simplistic. Russia cannot help an ally that refuses assistance.

Russia views its relationship with Iran as strategic, but not an unconditional alliance like NATO. It's based on mutual interests, not blind loyalty.

Historical Context:

Relations between Russia (and the USSR) and Iran have long been complicated—marked by wars, invasions (e.g., during WWII), and political distrust.

Iran has historically viewed both the U.S. and the Soviet Union as imperialist powers, even if it occasionally works with them.

Despite this, ties have warmed since the fall of the USSR, though Iran still harbors a persistent pro-Western current in its culture and politics.

What Now?:

Iran, having learned the hard way that the West won’t back it, is now actively engaging Russia in full-spectrum cooperation—likely including military.

Putin emphasized continued Russian support for Iran’s peaceful nuclear development and legitimate regional interests, indicating no change in Russia’s underlying stance.

Conclusion:

Russia is not too weak to help its allies; rather, Iran’s refusal of Russian help due to internal politics and pro-Western hopes backfired. Russia responded pragmatically, and now that Iran has reassessed, the partnership is intensifying. The perception of Russian weakness is largely a Western media narrative that ignores the complexity and pragmatism of realpolitik.