More Weapons for Ukraine: The Danger it Puts Us All In /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Col Jacques Baud

Daniel Davis Deep Dive Merch: Etsy store

About a week ago, former President Trump made a surprise announcement halting U.S. military aid to Ukraine, specifically cutting off critical defensive weapons like long-range interceptors and 155mm shells—vital components for Ukraine’s defense. This move shocked Ukrainian officials and led to urgent calls for clarification. It also triggered a flurry of international concern and phone calls between Trump, Putin, and Zelensky.

However, during a recent press event following Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's visit to the White House, Trump reversed course, stating that the U.S. would continue sending primarily defensive weapons to Ukraine, as they are "getting hit very hard."

Colonel Jacques Baud, a former Swiss intelligence officer, commented that Trump might be overestimating the leverage U.S. arms transfers provide. He also pointed out deeper systemic issues: the U.S. is running low on munitions and struggling to replenish its stockpiles due to supply chain challenges—particularly a shortage of rare earth materials, much of which come from China. China has recently restricted such exports to U.S. defense contractors, which could impact production of critical systems like missiles and even F-35s.

Supporting this, on July 1, reports emerged that the Deputy Secretary of Defense had warned U.S. interceptor stockpiles were critically low, prompting a recommendation to suspend transfers to Ukraine. This led to public reassurances from U.S. officials, including Ambassador Whitaker, who framed the pause as part of an “America First” strategy to prioritize U.S. defense readiness.

The Pentagon, sensing alarm at home and abroad, then walked back the panic, emphasizing this was a “capability review”—not a signal of weakness—and claimed the U.S. military remains fully capable and prepared, citing recent successful operations as proof.

In essence, the controversy reveals:

Strategic uncertainty and inconsistent messaging from the U.S.

Internal concerns about munitions shortages and long-term sustainability

The growing impact of supply chain dependencies on geopolitical decisions

A fragile balance between supporting Ukraine and maintaining U.S. military readiness.