Putin & Trump in Alaska: The Dangers of Looking Weak /Lt Col Daniel Davis

Daniel Davis Deep Dive Merch: Etsy store

Danny outlines deep divisions ahead of the upcoming Trump–Putin meeting in Alaska, just five days away.

Positions: Trump wants to swap land to end the war; Zelensky wants a 30-day ceasefire with no land concessions; the EU also rejects land swaps and insists on NATO’s open-door policy; Russia demands recognition of its June 2024 territorial gains, plus demilitarization and “denazification.”

Constraints: Ukraine is dependent on Western aid and lacks true freedom of choice. Russia holds the battlefield advantage and domestic opinion would revolt if Putin conceded core demands.

Trump’s gamble: He believes personal diplomacy and offering strategic incentives (e.g., arms control treaties, sanctions relief) could persuade Putin to compromise—but risks looking weak if he returns empty-handed or can’t get Ukraine/EU to agree.

Putin’s advantage: He can “win” either by securing his terms or by using a failed meeting to portray himself internationally (especially to the Global South and Asia) as a reasonable actor thwarted by the West.

Sabotage risk: Ukraine and Europe reportedly want the meeting canceled and may attempt provocations to derail it before August 15.

Outcome: Whatever is decided will be between Trump and Putin alone, with no EU or Ukrainian leaders in the room. The days ahead are expected to be tense and potentially volatile on the battlefield.