Pressure on Putin to Finish Ukraine War /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Matt Hoh

Daniel Davis Deep Dive Merch: Etsy store

Matthew Hoh argues that one of the biggest Western misconceptions about the Russia-Ukraine war is the belief that Vladimir Putin is the sole decision-maker in Russia. While he is clearly in charge, Hoh notes that powerful hardline voices to Putin’s right are pressuring him to be more aggressive, not less. Contrary to Western hopes that public pressure might weaken Putin’s resolve, the war remains broadly popular inside Russia, and criticism of the Kremlin mostly comes from those who think the campaign should be intensified.

Hoh warns that Western leaders are misreading Russia’s resilience. They expect sanctions and infrastructure damage to destabilize the Russian economy and government, but the opposite has happened: Russia has adapted and expanded economically, replacing Western imports, forging new trade partnerships, and reducing its dependence on oil and gas from 50% of state revenue a decade ago to about 20% now. Despite nearly twenty rounds of sanctions, Russia’s economy has stabilized and even overheated, with inflation now easing.

Meanwhile, Western industrial output lags behind. Russia is reportedly producing and launching two to three times more drones into Ukraine than Ukraine sends back, demonstrating that Moscow’s military-industrial base outpaces the combined Western effort to rearm Kyiv.

Hoh also criticizes Western media and think tanks—such as the Atlantic Council—for misrepresenting the battlefield reality by claiming that “Russia cannot win.” He says the more accurate assessment is that “Russia cannot lose, and Ukraine cannot win.” The war has reached a grinding stalemate where neither side can achieve a decisive victory.

He cautions that Western optimism—that sanctions, attrition, or Putin’s removal will lead to a Ukrainian victory—is detached from reality. Continued Western aid may prolong Ukraine’s survival but cannot change the overall trajectory. Hoh warns this strategy risks a Ukrainian collapse, either militarily or economically, while Western policymakers cling to the illusion that more money, weapons, and younger conscripts will keep the war going.