Russia's Knockout Blow to Ukraine Energy Grid /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Matt Hoh

Daniel Davis Deep Dive Merch: Etsy store

Heading into the winter of 2025–2026, Russia appears ready to launch a large-scale campaign targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, aiming to cripple its electricity grid, heating, and industrial capacity during what could be a harsh winter. While Russia attempted similar strikes in previous years, this new offensive is broader and more intense, with hundreds of missiles and drones hitting Ukrainian targets nightly and inflicting cumulative damage.

Analyst Matthew Hoh describes this as a natural progression of the war, now focused on breaking Ukraine’s economy and public morale. He notes that while previous attacks were disruptive, they weren’t decisive—this time, the scale and consistency could be. Ukraine’s economic situation is dire: the IMF projects a $70 billion budget shortfall, and public opinion is shifting sharply toward supporting a negotiated end to the war—up to 70% in favor, compared to about 25% two years ago.

On the Russian side, however, strikes by Ukraine on oil refineries and infrastructure, though fewer, are having some real effects on fuel supplies. Yet, public sentiment in Russia remains hardened in the opposite direction—more citizens are frustrated that Putin isn’t going far enough, not that the war should end.

Hoh argues that Western leaders misunderstand the internal dynamics of Russia. Putin is pressured by hardliners, not doves, and Russia’s economy has proven unexpectedly resilient to sanctions. Once heavily dependent on oil and gas, it’s now diversified, maintaining strong revenues and stable inflation. Despite nearly 20 rounds of Western sanctions, the Russian economy is expanding and self-sufficient, while its arms industry is outproducing the West—Russia reportedly launches twice as many drones into Ukraine as Ukraine does into Russia.

Hoh concludes that the West faces a reality check: its industrial base and political leadership are lagging, while Russia’s combination of economic adaptability, domestic unity, and industrial output is giving it the upper hand. Western hopes that economic pressure or public discontent would collapse Russia are proving misplaced, as Moscow instead grows more entrenched and confident heading into the new phase of the war.