Deep Dive - What We Learned This Week /Lt Col Daniel Davis

Daniel Davis Deep Dive Merch: Etsy store

After reports leaked that the U.S. might send 20–50 Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, expectations in Kyiv rose — but the small number would have little strategic impact. Following a two-and-a-half-hour phone call between Trump and Putin, however, Trump reversed course, telling Zelensky no Tomahawks would be provided.

Zelensky appeared visibly stunned and demoralized in his subsequent public appearance — forced to speak outside the White House, in a nearby park, instead of holding the traditional joint press conference inside. His remarks were hesitant and confused, signaling deep disappointment and uncertainty.

European leaders, caught off guard, quickly reaffirmed their continued support for Ukraine. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz acknowledged the visit “did not go as Zelensky hoped,” stressing Europe must step up militarily and financially.

The episode highlighted how Trump’s position had swung from threatening Russia with Tomahawks earlier in the week to calling for an immediate ceasefire at the current battle lines — a proposal rejected by both Moscow and Kyiv. Russia considers such a halt a defeat; Ukraine and Europe see it as rewarding aggression.

As of now, diplomatic prospects remain bleak. A possible Lavrov–Rubio ministerial meeting and a potential Trump-Putin encounter in Budapest are still uncertain. Analysts like former UK diplomat Ian Proud note that Russia is content with a slow, grinding war — not fighting for territory, but for time, confident Western resolve and funding will eventually weaken.

Bottom line:

Trump’s abrupt shift alienated both sides, leaving Zelensky humiliated, Europe scrambling, and peace talks no closer to progress — with Russia maintaining the upper hand through patience and attrition.