AMERICA FIRST: The ORIGINAL AGENDA /Scott Horton & Lt Col Daniel Davis

Daniel Davis Deep Dive Merch: Etsy store

Scott Horton explains that Russia possesses a larger stockpile of tactical (low-yield) nuclear weapons—smaller than the city-destroying strategic H-bombs used in deterrence. These bombs are roughly the size of those dropped on Hiroshima or Nagasaki, designed for use on the battlefield rather than for global annihilation.

According to U.S. analysts, Russia’s military doctrine includes an “escalate to deescalate” strategy—using one or a few tactical nukes in a limited regional conflict to shock opponents into backing down. For instance, if Ukraine were on the verge of retaking Crimea, Moscow might use a small nuclear weapon as a demonstration of desperation and resolve, effectively saying to Washington and NATO: “See how far we’re willing to go—back off.”

The U.S. Response: ‘Escalate to Deescalate’ in Reverse

In reaction, the U.S. military adopted a mirror policy, insisting that any Russian nuclear use—no matter how small—would not intimidate America. Instead, Washington would respond with greater nuclear force, to prove that escalation would never achieve de-escalation.

Horton notes that in a 2019 U.S. war game, officials simulated a scenario where Russia used a tactical nuke in Ukraine. The American response was to nuke Belarus with a larger weapon—publicly signaling that the U.S. would respond to nuclear use with even more destructive force.

However, Horton warns that this logic is catastrophically flawed. Once even one nuke is used, he argues, the chain of retaliation becomes almost impossible to stop. The U.S. assumption that Russia would then “deescalate” is unrealistic; Moscow would see such a strike as the start of total war. Both sides would likely unleash their full arsenals, resulting in the destruction of most of northern civilization—a total nuclear exchange wiping out major populations across the Northern Hemisphere.

The Path Forward: Deescalation and Diplomacy

Horton stresses that the only rational policy is to deescalate rhetoric and rebuild nuclear diplomacy—reviving the kind of restraint and communication channels that existed during earlier Cold War periods.

Host Danny Davis asks what advice Horton would give to the U.S. government under President Trump, given the unpredictable state of American policy and Trump’s impulsive nature.

Horton’s Advice to the U.S.

Horton replies bluntly: “Fire Marco Rubio and hire Doug Macgregor.” In his view, U.S. foreign policy is dominated by hawkish voices like Rubio’s, who favor confrontation. Douglas Macgregor—retired colonel, realist, and critic of interventionism—represents the diplomatic restraint Horton believes America desperately needs.

He points out that Trump initially showed signs of genuine antiwar instinct. Early in 2025, during his return to office, Trump suggested negotiating a new treaty with Russia and China to slash nuclear arsenals and military budgets by half. He also floated the idea of abandoning the “great power competition” narrative that had replaced the War on Terror, and instead pursuing economic cooperation and peace.

Horton praises this as the true “America First” vision—focusing on domestic prosperity and peace instead of foreign wars. He contrasts that with the “War Party” of establishment figures from both parties—Bush, Clinton, McCain, and Biden—who have, in his words, “run America’s foreign policy into the ground since the Cold War ended.”