AVOIDING Russia Root Causes in Ukraine War/Lt Col Daniel Davis

Daniel Davis Deep Dive Merch: Etsy store

Russia said it had successfully tested its Burvestnik cruise missile, described by Moscow as being capable of piercing any defense shield. Donald Trump responded by saying, “Hey, we do have a nuclear submarine off your shore,” discussing the test as inappropriate. Is this all posturing related to Russia–Ukraine, or does it transcend that and involve more geopolitical global issues between Russia and the United States?

Yeah, this transcends it. It certainly is related, but it also goes beyond it. This Burvestnik missile is a significant technological advancement, and it just makes the job a lot more difficult. Trump earlier this summer talked about wanting to have this big golden dome that would be this impervious shield that would protect us. That was never going to be the case. It’s kind of aspirational because the technology of existing ICBMs and other kinds of hypersonic missiles—we already don’t have the capability to defend against those. This one adds a new layer of complexity. So, it’s just another thing we couldn’t intercept. And certainly, our missiles are the same way for Russia; they can’t intercept a majority of our missile force either, whether from a submarine, a silo, or a bomber.

Basically, this just restates what already exists: don’t go to nuclear war because it’s going to be mutually assured destruction.

Right, we were getting further away from the concept of mutually assured destruction because of our ability to shoot down rockets that were coming our way. But if you can’t shoot them down—if they’re nuclear bombs—no one’s going to want to launch them. We’ve got the technology, they’ve got the technology. So, in terms of Cold War and nuclear reality, we’re kind of back to a status quo.

Yeah, it doesn’t really change anything. On technical capability, though, this weapon is pretty amazing. It’s the first missile, as far as I’m aware, that uses nuclear fuel to actually propel it—basically like a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier that never needs refueling. So, it literally can fly forever, or as long as its components allow, which means it can fly all over the world and come in from angles where your defense systems aren’t oriented. It adds another layer of “don’t get into a nuclear war,” but it doesn’t change the overall strategic balance.