Col Doug Macgregor: Russia Warns Ukraine: Time to Surrender

Daniel Davis Deep Dive Merch: Etsy store

Col Doug Macgregor reviews recent Ukrainian setbacks (mentions “Bakmoot, Advka and the Korsk offensive”): Ukrainian forces stayed in exposed positions instead of withdrawing to more defensible lines, allowing Russian forces to encircle pockets and close escape routes.

As a result, many Ukrainian troops are trapped in shrinking pockets (e.g., the “Mirror pocket,” Prosk/Prosk(?) area); only small numbers remain on the outskirts and surrender ultimatums have been issued.

The interviewer and speaker note Russia’s historical practice of leaving a “golden bridge” to let encircled forces retreat, but say Russia is deliberately closing options now to deny Ukraine the chance to regroup.

Russia has increased aerial bombardment heavily: one claim cited 5,328 guided aerial bombs (FABs) in October and roughly 40,000 aerial bombs in the first 10 months of 2025 (comparable to all of 2024). A single-day snapshot cited dozens of glide bombs, thousands of artillery/rocket strikes, and thousands of FPV drone attacks. New faster drone/munitions (Garin/Garin-3 variants, jet-powered) are complicating Ukrainian air defense.

The Russian approach described: use long-range strikes and air power to minimize ground casualties while advancing, since Ukraine lacks robust air/missile defense and counterstrike capability.

The speaker argues Western/NATO leadership (and the U.S./president) has not done enough to stop the fighting, and that continued Western support allows Ukraine to keep resisting — prolonging the conflict and benefiting Russian advances.

Strategic outlook given: with current Russian gains and terrain to the west (more open rolling hills), the speaker believes Russian forces can push to the Dnipro (Neper) River, potentially bringing historically Russian-speaking cities (Kharkiv, Odessa) into a Russian-controlled zone; questions remain how much territory west of the Dnipro will remain outside Russian control.

Political speculation: the speaker suggests Zelensky may be driven from power or flee to Poland, and describes rumors about Ukrainian leadership plans; he also mentions possible Russian plans to repopulate reclaimed areas (reference to Cossack/Kuban ties).

Key takeaways

Tactical mistakes (not withdrawing) + encirclement have produced dangerous pockets for Ukraine.

Russia is intensifying and modernizing its air campaign and stand-off strike tactics, reducing the need for costly urban fighting.

If current trends continue, the front could roll west to the Dnipro, with significant strategic and political consequences for Ukraine and Europe.

One-sentence gist: Ukraine’s forces have been partially encircled after failing to withdraw from exposed positions while Russia ramps up a massive, increasingly sophisticated air-and-strike campaign that could enable advances to the Dnipro and major territorial and political changes.