WHERE the RUSSIA UKRAINE WAR CANNOT GO /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Glenn Diesen

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The discussion argues that current peace efforts in the Russia-Ukraine war resemble earlier failed diplomatic moments (like the “Alaska” episode), where momentum faded and nothing changed. Trump has proposed a peace initiative, Russia has responded privately, and intermediary visits may follow—but European leaders and Zelensky are expected to praise Trump publicly while quietly rejecting any deal that requires Ukrainian or NATO concessions.

The speakers emphasize that the strategic situation has shifted dramatically since early 2022: Russia is now far stronger militarily, has new weapons, expanded its forces, and holds advantageous positions, while Ukraine has suffered massive losses in manpower, equipment, and defensive lines. NATO stockpiles are depleted, and Western sanctions have failed to weaken Russia strategically.

They argue Ukraine can no longer win or even prevent defeat without a negotiated settlement. If Trump stands firm and pressures Europe to accept terms reflecting current realities, Europe might grudgingly agree to an “ugly” deal. But they predict Trump is more likely to “roll over” again, after which Russia will continue advancing west until dictating final terms, leaving Ukraine devastated.

European leaders appear to be managing Trump by flattering him while undermining his proposals. Some in Moscow fear a premature ceasefire could merely postpone the conflict, echoing strategist Edward Luttwak’s argument that stopping wars before decisive outcomes often prolongs them. The speakers stress that idea only applies to the stronger party—Russia—not Ukraine, which needs the war to end immediately to avoid destruction. Ultimately, they argue Europe’s long-term strategy of building a security system without Russia has collapsed, and current policies are leading Ukraine toward national ruin.