Has Putin won?

Georgia, Ukraine, Crimea, Syria.. Is Putin winning or losing ?

We talk here about the strategy of Putin in the last conflict that we have seen so far.

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NB: I had to repost this vid because of a thumbnail problem. I posted the video and went trekking four days, before I realized that this video had no thumbnail. Youtube therefore did not consider it as worthy so it was nowhere on Youtube :/. Thank for those who will help me in leveraging back this video. Letting this video play is the best way I guess.

In 1991, the cold war ends. The Warsaw Pact ceases to exist but not the NATO. And, as a matter of fact, Russia is still considered as a threat by the NATO members. Russia is still seen as a rival superpower.

So for the NATO, the question is still how to reduce significantly Russia’s power. Especially on its western side? Let’s watch a map.

For Russia, historically - whether it was under the reign of Catherine the Great or under the contemporary leadership of Vladimir Putin,

1- The will to have access to the warm seas is imperious. Russia wants to be part of the game in the Black Sea… but also in the Mediterranean sea. This is why Catherine the Great started to build the port of Sevastopol in Crimea (GSV). To get access to the Black Sea. And this is the reason why Russia has a naval base in Syria, in Tartus. To get access the Mediterranean. So, thanks to its naval bases in Sevastopol and in Tartus, Russia has access to the warm seas.

2- The second imperious need that Russia has, is defensive. Russia is a vast plain. No mountains to protect it. This is why the Huns or the Mongols could suddenly surge on Eastern Europe (GSV), this is why Napoleon or Hitler could go so fast and so deep within the Russian territory (GSI+GSV). From a Russian perspective, you need a strategic depth before a potential enemy can reach your core land (GS). And if you can own the mountains which overlook your land, it is even better. Ukraine, is therefore of strategic importance. As are the Caucasus mountains, on which Georgia is built. Both Ukraine and Georgia are of tremendous importance concerning Russia’ Strategic Depth.

So, influencing the fate of Georgia, of Ukraine (Crimea having been, until 2014, part of Ukraine) and even influencing the fate of Syria, is an efficient way for the NATO to reduce Russia’s power.

But, in this geopolitical confrontation. Did Putin win or did he lose?