Is Trump Really to Blame for the Farm Economy?? + Soybeans SURGE

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🌱 Soybeans Surge After Trump Comments 🇺🇸📈

Soybean futures are 🔥 this morning after President Donald Trump took to Truth Social Sunday night, saying he hopes China will quickly quadruple its soybean orders and is worried about a shortage. 📲 Traders are reading this as a possible hint that soybean purchases could be part of a new trade deal. The Nov25 contract spiked 📈 27¢ overnight!

📰 Trump & the Farm Economy

A recent Bloomberg piece looked at Trump's role in the farm economy. Since his first tariffs earlier this year, some farm input costs have climbed. Tariffs now average 15.2%—the highest since WWII 🇺🇸—but inflation, COVID money creation, direct farm payments 💵, and the Black Sea war ⚔️ have also fueled higher costs.

📉 New crop US soybean sales are the lowest in nearly 20 years—China hasn’t bought any yet. Meanwhile, US corn export sales are record high 🌽💪.

📊 Fund Tracker

Funds cut their net short in corn last week (👀 +15k contracts)

Net sellers of soybeans (-29k), pushing net shorts to the biggest since Dec 2024

Net sellers of SRW wheat (-16k)

📅 USDA Report Tomorrow – Big Changes Expected

Traders expect higher corn 🌽 and soybean 🌱 yield estimates, bigger US carryouts, and rising global stocks—except for wheat, which may tighten.

🌍 Global Food Prices Climb

The FAO Food Price Index hit 130.1 in July—the highest in 2+ years—driven by record-high meat prices 🥩 and surging vegetable oils 🌻🥥. Grain prices remain low despite high grocery costs.

🚨 Flash Corn Sale

US exporters sold 125,000mt (5mil bu) of corn to “unknown” buyers for 25/26. Next year’s sales are already up 102% vs last year.

📈 See Trump’s post, market charts, fund positions, and pre-report estimates below!

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