Corn Yield Clash: Crop Tour 6.1BPA Below USDA, What Does it Mean??

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🌽🚜 Big Week in Ag Markets!

✨ Pro Farmer wrapped up its crop tour with national yield estimates. Corn came in at 182.7 bpa (16.2B bu) vs USDA’s 188.8 bpa (16.7B bu), while soybeans were pegged at 53 bpa (4.2B bu) vs USDA’s 53.6 bpa (4.3B bu). Scouts saw huge variability—strong crops in the west but dryness and disease pressure in the east. 📊🌱

⚡ Biofuel Shock: EPA granted 63 full & 77 partial refinery waivers, sending soybean oil futures up nearly 4%. Still no clarity on reallocation for big refiners until 2023—keeping biofuel markets on edge. ⛽🌻

🇨🇳 Trade Tensions: China says U.S. protectionism is hurting farm trade. With U.S. ag exports to China cut by more than half this year, soybeans are feeling the brunt. Beijing calls farmland purchase limits “political,” while U.S. lawmakers say it’s about security. 🌎⚖️

📉 Fund Moves: CFTC data showed money managers trimming corn shorts—the smallest since May. Funds were net buyers of 28k corn & 24k soybeans, but net sellers of SRW wheat. 💼📊

💵 Macro Watch: Fed Chair Powell hinted at a September rate cut during Jackson Hole. Stocks surged, the dollar fell, and traders are betting on an 87% chance of a quarter-point cut. 📉🏦📈

🐂 Cattle on Feed: August 1 inventory at 10.9M head, 98% of last year. Placements were higher than expected but still 6% below 2024 levels. Overall tone = slightly bearish. 🐄📉

🚢 Flash Sales: USDA reported corn sales of 5M bu to Costa Rica and 6M bu to Spain for 2025/26 delivery. 🌍📦

👇 Check the charts & graphics below for the full picture.

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