Corn and Soybean Ratings are Below Average, Prices are Below Production Cost

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🌽 Corn & Crops — US corn crop conditions held steady at 67% good-to-excellent, while soybeans dipped slightly to 65%. Spring wheat improved week-over-week but winter wheat hit its lowest rating since records began in 1986.

📈 Futures Markets — Corn and wheat futures saw modest rebounds on bargain buying after recent losses, with KC wheat leading gains up 9 cents. Soybeans fell for a seventh straight session, pressured by favorable weather and weak Chinese demand.

🌧️ Weather — Parts of the Corn Belt received over 4 inches of rain in a short window, with active radar again this morning. Forecasts call for above-normal rainfall across corn areas in both the 1-7 and 8-14 day outlooks.

💊 Fertilizer Prices — New Orleans urea has dropped 36% from its mid-April peak to $453.50/ton, now at pre-war levels as US-Iran peace talks ease supply fears. Seasonal demand weakness and ample domestic supply are adding further downward pressure.

🌍 Brazil vs. US Competition — Brazil's farming model is under strain as heavy reliance on imported fertilizer leaves growers far more exposed to the Iran-driven price shock. Many Brazilian farmers are now operating at a loss, potentially narrowing their long-standing cost advantage over US producers.

🚢 Export Inspections & Flash Sales — Corn export inspections came in strong at 1.9 MMT, up 11% year-over-year, while soybeans and wheat lagged at the lower end of expectations. USDA also reported flash sales of 264,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations and 103,000 MT of corn to Japan.