Global Fertilizer Prices Dip - Why is US Retail Still Sky-High??

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🌾 India is ramping up urea imports ahead of peak planting season, but despite buying at nearly double pre-conflict prices, the country still faces a significant supply shortfall. Surprisingly, the tender announcement failed to rally global urea markets, as traders are more focused on potential Chinese export resumption and hopes for a Strait of Hormuz peace deal.

☮️ The US and Iran are struggling to finalize a peace deal, with Trump expressing dissatisfaction over current terms and warning that strikes could resume. Despite cautious optimism pushing WTI crude down to the high $80s earlier this week, overnight tensions have pushed spot prices back into the $90–91/bbl range.

🌽 Corn futures hit their lowest level in over a month, dropping nearly 5 cents to close around $4.78/bu as crude oil's sharp selloff weighed heavily on the market. Wheat posted its fifth straight day of losses despite poor US winter wheat conditions, with Chicago and KC contracts both settling lower.

🇧🇷 Brazilian farm bankruptcies have surged tenfold since 2021, prompting banks to tighten lending terms and seize assets even during bankruptcy proceedings. Consolidation appears to be the likely outcome, with larger operations absorbing smaller farms squeezed by low commodity prices, high rates, and rising input costs.

⛽ The year-round E15 bill faces an uphill battle in the Senate, as it's widely considered unlikely to pass as standalone legislation. The inclusion of a Small Refinery Exemptions restructure has complicated its path, though it could still advance if attached to the farm bill, defense authorization, or an appropriations bill.