Does the Iowa Caucus Actually Predict the Nominee? (featuring J.J. McCullough)
February 2, 2020
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6:03Now PlayingDoes the Iowa Caucus Actually Predict the Nominee? (featuring J.J. McCullough)
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as posted by the channelMr. Beat walked to Iowa to check out the 2020 Iowa caucuses. The whole world has its eyes on Iowa tomorrow, but why? And...should it really care what happens in Iowa? Is the Iowa Caucus overrated?
A special thanks to @JJMcCullough for collaborating with me for this episode, and for helping me film and providing footage for my video as well.
J.J.'s Iowa Caucus video
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Why is Iowa first for the caucus and primary elections?
Also, thanks to Dan Dutcher for helping film, and thanks to the AP Archive for additional footage and Gage Skidmore for additional images.
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First of all, what IS a caucus? Well, it’s a gathering of local members of a political party who register their preference among candidates running for public office. Based on how much support candidates get, they get a certain number of delegates to represent them at their political party’s national convention. The caucus in Iowa is different than a primary that most other states later do, in that people literally shout at each other in schools and community centers in order to convince each other to support one candidate, and then count up the winners. Each candidate needs at least 15 percent of the support in the room to get recognized in the precinct. So is the Iowa Caucus overrated? Is it too much hype? Can it really predict the nominee?
Well maybe? Actually, it kind of depends on the political party the candidate is in. Since 1972, when the Iowa caucus first became a thing, USA TODAY reported that 70% of the Democratic Party’s Iowa caucus winners went on to become its presidential nominee. However, just 37.5% of the Republican Party’s Iowa caucus winners went on to become its presidential nominee. So based on this short history, one of these people, ok except Deval Patrick...sorry Deval...has a 70% chance of becoming the nominee if they win the Iowa caucus.
And now the bad news for one of these people…
Iowa caucuses are terrible at predicting who will actually be the next president. Just two Democrats and one Republican since 1972 have made it all the way to winning the presidency after first winning the Iowa caucus.
#iowacaucus #2020election #presidentialelection
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