‘Red’ Counties And States Have Gotten ‘Bluer’ Since Pandemic Started

Some very interesting new data from an unlikely source has revealed that many "deep red" and some "purple" swing areas of the country became much more "Blue" since the pandemic began. This information comes from a real estate group that found that hundreds of thousands of minority voters moved into traditionally "white" areas of red and purple states, meaning we could see some upset victories in next week's midterm races. Ring of Fire's Farron Cousins discusses this new data.

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*This transcript was generated by a third-party transcription software company, so please excuse any typos.

So with the midterm elections just a couple days away, polls all over the place. You know, some polls show Democrats winning certain Senate races. Then the next poll shows them losing. So who knows what's happening with the polls, who knows what's gonna happen in the midterms. But let me throw another wrench into the gears here. Another thing do, I guess just confuse everybody about what to expect on Tuesday, according to new data released by the real estate firm, Redfin, Red states, red counties, and purple states and purple counties, You know, those swing counties and states that really could go either way in an election, they became more blue during and after the pandemic here in the United States. And no, I'm not talking about the fact that yes, more Republicans died from Covid than Democrats. That is something that hasn't been factored into any of the polling.

So that's the X factor too. This is coming from real estate data. And so what happened is that you have traditionally white areas that are also the red areas that saw a massive influx, hundreds of thousands of people moving there that were not white African Americans. Uh, uh, Latino voters and Asian voters flocked to these areas during the pandemic. And overall, according to the data from Redfin, these red states, red counties, purple states, and purple counties got 1% less white during the pandemic. And those three groups of voters that I mentioned do in large numbers, mostly vote for Democrats. It's not a hundred percent voting for Democrats, but most of the time those particular demographics will vote for the Democrat over the Republican and they just move to Republican areas to the point where they drop down the white percentage by 1%. And if you don't think 1% can swing an election, then you haven't been paying attention to American politics for the last 25 years. So that is another X factor. You have demographics that have shifted since the 2020 census, and the reason that is important is because the polling being done right now is based on data from the 2020 census. So if the 2020 census showed that, hey, in this state 60% of people are Republican and 40% are Democrat, that means when they do their polling, they're gonna call 60 Democrats for every, or excuse me, 60 Republicans for every 40 Democrats, because they want their sample to reflect the census demographics.

So they're oversampling Republicans because these areas, due to both covid deaths and demographic shifts after the 2020 census, there's more Republicans being represented in the polls, which means the polls are going to skew Republicans, even though the voting base is no longer that skewed. I hope that makes sense because that is about the only way I can describe it here. Again, we're not talking about huge, massive shifts, but we are talking about shifts that could basically present some really surprise upsets on Tuesday evening where you have Democrats outperforming the polling data. Again, due to those two massive X factors, the demographic shifts past the pandemic, and of course the majority covid deaths being Republicans, those are also not included in the census. I don't want people to get your hopes up too high. I still say Republicans are gonna take back the house, but I do think we will see a couple of surprise upset, uh, victories for the Democrats that Republicans didn't see coming.