Global Trends 2040: Navigating A More Contested World

A Look at the Key Trends That Will Shape the Next Two Decades

With shifting global demographics, rapid technological change and rising geopolitical competition, the world is at a critical juncture. The COVID-19 pandemic has reminded the world of its fragility, creating new uncertainties about governance, economic growth and state stability. Meanwhile, additional shared global challenges such as climate change, mass migration and technological insecurity are manifesting more frequently and more intensely — and within an increasingly fragmented international environment. To help policymakers navigate our future world, the National Intelligence Council's recent report, “Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World,” analyzes the key structural forces and emerging dynamics that are shaping the international landscape and presents scenarios for what the next two decades might hold.

Published every four years since 1997, the Global Trends report represents one of the most ambitious efforts by the U.S. intelligence community to understand the key trends and uncertainties that will shape the future global strategic environment. This year's report analyzes major structural forces in demographics, technology, economics and the environment and explores how these forces will affect dynamics within societies, governments and the international system. It also envisions a variety of plausible scenarios for the world of 2040 — from a democratic renaissance to competitive coexistence between the U.S. and China.

On June 9, USIP hosted a timely conversation, moderated by Ambassador George Moose, with the lead author of “Global Trends 2040,” from the National Intelligence Council as well as a panel of global leaders and scholars from across the national security, development and private sectors. Panelists evaluated the findings from this year's report and considered how a range of actors can harness these trends to shape a more secure and prosperous future.

For more information about this event, please visit

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The United States Institute of Peace is a national, nonpartisan, independent institute, founded by Congress and dedicated to the proposition that a world without violent conflict is possible, practical, and essential for U.S. and global security. In conflict zones abroad, the Institute works with local partners to prevent, mitigate, and resolve violent conflict. To reduce future crises and the need for costly interventions, USIP works with governments and civil societies to help their countries solve their own problems peacefully. The Institute provides expertise, training, analysis, and support to those who are working to build a more peaceful, inclusive world.