What's Next For Hong Kong People After China Imposed a National Security Law?

For many in Hong Kong who’ve long feared an erosion of their freedoms under China's rule, the national security law marked a tipping point. Residents have been flooding migration consultants with questions on how to move their families overseas.

With many countries still enforcing travel restrictions to fight the coronavirus, it’s too early to gauge how many Hongkongers will ultimately move out. But consultants say the odds of an eventual exodus are growing as lawmakers from the U.K., the U.S. and Taiwan signal they may ease entry requirements for some Hong Kong citizens.

Born and raised in Hong Kong, Ian has witnessed the handover of the former British colony to China in 1997 and supported the pro-democracy protests the past year. Like a growing number of Hongkongers disillusioned by China's tightening grip on the city, Ian has thoughts of leaving the city, but at the same time worries about the younger generations, who may not be able to leave.

"They are the ones who’ve sacrificed the most," says Ian. "I think if I leave now, it’s like I’ve left them behind. I feel sorry for them."

A wave of emigration could erode Hong Kong’s attractiveness to multinational companies, hundreds of which rely on local talent to drive their growth across the Greater China region and the rest of Asia. The American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong has warned that retaining top-tier employees in the city may become more difficult.

Signs that more Hongkongers are planning to leave have been increasing since last year, when a now-scrapped extradition bill sparked mass protests and violent clashes with police in the heart of the city’s central business district.

While Hong Kong doesn’t publish high-frequency immigration statistics, applications for good citizenship cards -- which certify a person doesn’t have a criminal record -- serve as a proxy because they’re often needed to apply for foreign visas. The monthly number of applications averaged 2,935 from June 2019 to April 2020, a 50% jump versus 2018.

It’s not the first time the city has faced the prospect of a brain drain. An estimated 300,000 people left between 1990 and 1994, fearing Hong Kong’s handover to China from Britain would destroy the city’s civil liberties and capitalist system. Yet predictions of Hong Kong’s demise ultimately proved unfounded, with its status as Asia’s premier financial hub only becoming more entrenched over the following two decades.

Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam said that the security law will only target “an extremely small minority of illegal and criminal acts” and that the “life and property, basic rights and freedoms of the overwhelming majority of citizens will be protected.” China’s central government has made similar remarks.

David Hui, managing director at Centaline Immigration Consultants (HK) Ltd., said his firm is now receiving as many as 100 inquiries a day from Hongkongers interested in moving to countries including Australia, the U.K. and Canada. Taiwan, Malaysia and Portugal are also becoming increasingly popular. “The national security law is definitely a push factor,” Hui said.

Critics of China’s Communist Party worry that it will use the law to crack down on dissent and undermine the “one country, two systems” principle that has kept Hong Kong’s judiciary separate from the mainland’s since the 1997 handover.

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