PUTIN WILL STRIKE Any Western Troops in UKRAINE /Lt Col Daniel Davis

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Russia, through both Peskov and now Putin directly, has stated that any Western troops in Ukraine will be treated as legitimate military targets, signaling a harder, more confident line. Russia insists that only major Ukrainian concessions—territorial loss, no NATO membership, demilitarization—can end the war, while Zelensky continues to rely on Western promises of military aid and security guarantees, which Russia rejects outright.

Analysts argue Zelensky is clinging to unrealistic expectations, believing Western rhetoric instead of Russian threats. The West, especially Europe, is unlikely to put troops on the ground without U.S. backing, and Trump shows signs of seeking a way out, potentially blaming Europeans or China.

Commentators like Michael Clarke note Europe lacks the capacity and will to risk direct war with Russia, despite NATO officials’ repeated claims that Russia has no say over Ukraine’s security choices. Critics warn this rhetoric mirrors pre-war miscalculations in 2021, when NATO dismissed Russian warnings that “NATO in Ukraine equals war.”

Bottom line: Russia holds the military leverage, Ukraine continues to reject Russian demands, and Western leaders talk tough but are unlikely to commit ground troops—making a prolonged conflict almost inevitable.